Portugal’s political stability and its government’s renewed commitment to consolidate public finances will keep its public debt ratio on a firm downward path, in contrast with Spain and Italy. Portugal’s economic and fiscal adjustment since the crisis has been impressive, says Scope Ratings.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Companies and families have continued reducing their debt levels, down to 131.2% of GDP. Ten years ago their indebtedness exceeded 200%.
After issuing €1,62 bn at 5 years, €1,31bn at 10 years and €510 M at 30 years, the Treasury ruled out any further debt issuances in 2019. On the other hand, the net issuance amounted to almost € 20 bn, the lowest figure since 2007.
Alejandro Arevalo (Jupiter’s Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets) | One might think that emerging market debt has had difficult year, but it’s been quite the opposite. At the time of writing, the major EM hard currency indices have all returned more than 11% year to date.
BancaMarch | The European Commission warns that Spain is moving away from the adjustment path and asks for measures that compensate the alignment of pensions with prices.
Nick Malkoutzis (Macropolis) | Over recent weeks, there has been much talk from government officials about a “new Greece” emerging after the July elections. This has been supported by legislation that has already been passed, such as interventions in the way the country is governed, and the draft laws that are being lined up, such as the development bill, which is seen by New Democracy as a bureaucracy-buster that will pave the way for more investment.
A. Menut and A. Tentori (AXA IM) | Italian politics are back at centre stage, with Lega party leader Matteo Salvini unexpectedly triggering a government crisis and making way for what in many ways is yet another spurious coalition. The positive political climate, more European Union-friendly, together with non-negative – although weak – growth should be encouraging for markets.
J.L.M. Campuzano (AEB) | The Bank of Spain has published the financial accounts for the Spanish economy at the end of the first quarter. Consolidated household and company debt fell in the first quarter to 132% of GDP, 4.1 percentage points below the rate the year before. Company debt represents 74.4% and that of households 58.4%.
Miguel Navascués | There are many signs that the public think the crisis is over. One is the bankruptcy of Podemos, but there are many more. But has it ended? I doubt it.
Craig Willy via Fair Observer | It will be a busy few years for Japan, which hosts the G20 summit on June 28-29 followed by the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. The international attention sparks questions concerning how durable its economic success will be.