Link Securities | We highlight the negative impact that the new conflict between the European Commission (EC) and the populist government of Italy is having on the European securities markets and on the euro. Rome has not taken the necessary measures to contain the public deficit, which it will lead to a further increase in Italian public debt, whose weight could surpass 135% of GDP in two years.
Link Securities | According to Bloomberg, citing sources close to the issue, the European Commission is considering opening disciplinary proceedings against Italy next week because of its inability to control its debt.
Debt/Ebitda ratios of US companies is estimated to be around 3.3X compared to 2.3X in 2008, although the coverage of interest ratio (Ebitda/interests) reaches 7.4X compared to 7.3X in 2008. Therefore, although the level of debt is indeed high, the capacity to pay is also elevated, which is what really matters.
Despite the general deleveraging in the US, the corporate and non-corporate sector has begun to indebt itself again, currently to a level of 72.6% of GDP ($15 trillion). According to calculations of economists at the firm Solunion, the real level of non-financial corporate debt could exceed by 30%, or $3.9 Tr.
The European Commission authorise the merger in Holland between Tele2 and Deutsche Telekom without preconditions , which drove the European teleco sector yesterday. Until now the Commission had shown itself radically opposed to allowing corporate operations which imply a reduction from four to three in the number of operators in a country.
In this new binary world where China is bad and the US is good, there is a great danger of over-looking the very real structural risks in the west at the moment. As told by Mark Tinker, AXA strategist in Asia, one of the current amusing party games might be to play ‘substitute the words US for China in different bearish economic projection’ and see if it worries you more or less.
The EC found yesterday that Italy is in breach of the European Union’s debt criterion, with a debt/GDP ratio of 131.2% for 2017, significantly above the EU’s threshold of 60%. According to the firm Julius Baer, it is obviou the 60% target introduced in the Maastricht Treaty in the early 1990s cannot be binding anymore, given the elevated debt levels across European countries.
Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?
The biggest challenges facing the U.S. are deep and seriously jeopardize Americans’ future prosperity. Namely, soaring national debt, Social Security’s solvency and the lack of affordable health care. The official debt is $21.7 trillion
Telefonica posted a profit of €2,721 M in the first nine months of the year, which represents an improvement of 11.6% compared to the same period a year ago.Net debt reduced for the sixth consecutive quarter and stood at €42,636m at the end of September. This fall represents a reduction of nearly 10% year-on-year.