Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?
The biggest challenges facing the U.S. are deep and seriously jeopardize Americans’ future prosperity. Namely, soaring national debt, Social Security’s solvency and the lack of affordable health care. The official debt is $21.7 trillion
Telefonica posted a profit of €2,721 M in the first nine months of the year, which represents an improvement of 11.6% compared to the same period a year ago.Net debt reduced for the sixth consecutive quarter and stood at €42,636m at the end of September. This fall represents a reduction of nearly 10% year-on-year.
Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, is the favourite candite to become Brazil’s next president against Fernando Haddad, the nominee of the Workers’ Party. Polls point Bolsonaro is ahead by 11 points. In this context, Brazilian public debt is at 77% at present. This is what analysts at AXA IM say about Brazilian’s “explosive” public debt issue.
The deficit of Spain´s public administrations was 3.1% of GDP last year, the highest in the European Union, above the 3% registered by Portugal, and followed by Rumania (-2.9%), France (-2.7%) and Italy (-2.4%). This is according to the data published by the European Statistics Office, Eurostat, which has downgraded by two points Spain´s public debt to 98.1% of GDP.
According to the company´s report to the regulator (CNMV), Gestamp had net profits of 163 million euros up to September, which is a 7% increase on the same period in 2017. The company had an income of 6.15 billion euros between January and September, 2.5% more than in the first nine months of last year, and 8.9% at constant currency rate.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The ratio of company debt in Q2 was 94.9% of GDP, and that of families 60.8%. In the case of company debt, the rate falls to 76.3% if inter-company loans are excluded. In both cases, the levels are already close to the European average.
I. de la Torre and L. Torralba (Arcano Partners) | The economist Dornbusch says that “crises take long to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine”. The events that have affected the emerging countries this summer have proven Dornbusch was right.
From 2019 it is possible that Spain will have difficulties financing its public debt, which is definitely not only the official figure of 98.3% of GDP. Rajoy’s increase of this debt by €649 billion has been financed at very low interest rates, thanks to the ECB’s quantitative easing. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez has announced substantial spending increases, which will inevitably increase debt in 2019.
Now “the waters appear to have calmed” in Italy, analysts at Intermoney, however, believe we will see more episodes of tension originating in Italy. The key moment is likely to come at the end of the summer or in the autumn. This situation should be seen as a scenario for tension rather than rupture, although contagion to other peripheral economies could be possible.