Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, is the favourite candite to become Brazil’s next president against Fernando Haddad, the nominee of the Workers’ Party. Polls point Bolsonaro is ahead by 11 points. In this context, Brazilian public debt is at 77% at present. This is what analysts at AXA IM say about Brazilian’s “explosive” public debt issue.
The deficit of Spain´s public administrations was 3.1% of GDP last year, the highest in the European Union, above the 3% registered by Portugal, and followed by Rumania (-2.9%), France (-2.7%) and Italy (-2.4%). This is according to the data published by the European Statistics Office, Eurostat, which has downgraded by two points Spain´s public debt to 98.1% of GDP.
According to the company´s report to the regulator (CNMV), Gestamp had net profits of 163 million euros up to September, which is a 7% increase on the same period in 2017. The company had an income of 6.15 billion euros between January and September, 2.5% more than in the first nine months of last year, and 8.9% at constant currency rate.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The ratio of company debt in Q2 was 94.9% of GDP, and that of families 60.8%. In the case of company debt, the rate falls to 76.3% if inter-company loans are excluded. In both cases, the levels are already close to the European average.
I. de la Torre and L. Torralba (Arcano Partners) | The economist Dornbusch says that “crises take long to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine”. The events that have affected the emerging countries this summer have proven Dornbusch was right.
From 2019 it is possible that Spain will have difficulties financing its public debt, which is definitely not only the official figure of 98.3% of GDP. Rajoy’s increase of this debt by €649 billion has been financed at very low interest rates, thanks to the ECB’s quantitative easing. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez has announced substantial spending increases, which will inevitably increase debt in 2019.
Now “the waters appear to have calmed” in Italy, analysts at Intermoney, however, believe we will see more episodes of tension originating in Italy. The key moment is likely to come at the end of the summer or in the autumn. This situation should be seen as a scenario for tension rather than rupture, although contagion to other peripheral economies could be possible.
US corporate debt rose to 45% of GDP at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis that began in 2008 , the same level it reached at the height of the dot.com bubble in 2000/01
For a long time, Spain has had a “debt pending” in terms of budgetary stability. And, for the time being, the current scenario leads us to think that balancing the public finances is a difficult objective to achieve in the medium-term. Added to that problem is the high level of government debt.
At last, the Greek economy seems to be in a much more solid position. Greece once again saw positive growth rates in 2017 and it’s expected to maintain a growth rate of around 2% over the next two years. In spite of this, the financial sustainability of Greece’s public sector remains in doubt.