Intermoney | The Italian government has decided not to oppose the bid launched for Atlantia by the Benettons and Blackstone, according to the daily Cinco Dias. In theory, the Italian executive could have invoked the special powers it still has over Atlantia and other strategic sectors. However it has declined to do so. The price of the bid is 23 euros in cash, which values the concessionary at some 19…
Annalisa Piazza (MFS IM) | The outcome of the Italian Presidential election (Mattarella re-elected and Draghi remaining PM) is the best-case scenario for Italy in the next 12 months. As such, BTPs should benefit from the expected stability and the integrity of the two major political figures. In the short term, we see chances of a modest tightening in spreads vs Bund. We remain relatively optimistic on Italy’s recovery story…
Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | Despite the deep economic contraction in 2020, Italian business insolvencies decreased 29% year-on-year. The decline was mainly due to a temporary bankruptcy moratorium and fiscal support. However, with the expiry of temporary adjustments to insolvency law, it is expected that business failures will increase again in H2 of 2021. Looking at the cumulative insolvency growth between 2019 and 2021, Italian business failures are forecast to increase 4%, with further rising insolvencies expected in 2022
The S&P move reduces near term risks of Italy falling below investment grade that would have had implications on BTPs holdings by real money accounts and market pricing, somehow challenging the ECB efforts to keep financing conditions under control.
Israel Rafalovich | In the last few days a saying has frequently been heard in the corridors of the European Commission: “Spain is not Italy. With the new Spanish government it is now a Spanish spring.”
The twentieth anniversary of the creation of the ECB coincides with renewed financial tensions in the Eurozone. According to Caixa Research, the irreversability of the single currency requires ambitious advances in the European project.
Intermoney | The 5 Star Movement and La Liga finally reached an agreement to govern Italy on Thursday after more than two months of political deadlock. But it is still not known who will be prime minister.
In Sober Look, Marcello Minenna gives us a clue about a possible new breach in the euro’s structure. A few years ago (2011-2012), when the euro was going through its worst time, one of the consequences was that the central banks in the peripheral countries increased their debt position with TARGET2.
MADRID | The Corner | EU posts marginal growth stats, but the figures are indicative of slow pace of recovery.
Madrid | By Sean Duffy | Yanis Varoufakis has been causing quite a stir on his trip around Europe. The Greek Finance Minister will meet with his Italian counterpart on Tuesday, and both will be watching market reaction to proposals leaked by the Greek Government last night.