FED

fed powell nov 2023

Powell ‘in no hurry to lower interest rates further’ given good economic situation

Norbolsa | The chairman of the monetary authority, Jerome Powell, in his first appearance before Congress since his inauguration, endorsed the strength of the economy into which Trump is landing, although he avoided answering questions related to tariffs, Elon Musk, bank account security and other issues that reflect the instability of the government’s first weeks. In terms of monetary policy, he pointed out that the Fed is in no hurry…


chair powell

Powell’s wait-and-see stance

Juan Pedro Marín Arrese | Jerome Powell made it clear at the press conference following the Fed’s meeting that he and his colleagues are in no hurry to adjust rates. They will only move should prices undertake further progress to converge with the 2% target or the economy markedly cool down, sharply deteriorating employment. Carefully avoiding casting comments on the new administration’s policies, he emphasised the Fed’s commitment to independence…


Jerome Powell

US Federal Reserve announces second interest rate cut of year

Julian Marx (Flossbach von Storch) | The US Federal Reserve has just announced the second interest rate cut of the year. It is going down by 25 basis points to a new range of 4.5 to 4.75 per cent. The Fed’s confidence in today’s interest rate move may also have been drawn from the latest ‘Beige Book’, which is considered a barometer of the US economy and is published two…


Jay Powell

Did Powell tame inflation?

J. P. Marín-Arrese | Jerome Powell boasts having curbed the recent inflation flare through resolute tightening of monetary policy.  While the need to perform rate hikes seems obvious, it seems far from evident it stood as the paramount driving force. For, as is now clear, the Fed delivered negative rates throughout the inflationary bout and only undertook lukewarm efforts to drain the excess liquidity fearing the danger of a credit-crunch….


fed powell nov 2023

Fed cuts interest rates by 0.5 points

The Fed has lowered interest rates by 0.5 points, thus aligning with the market, which anticipated a roughly 70% probability of a 50 basis point cut. As a financial institution noted this morning, “the risk for credit markets is that a 50 basis point cut may be interpreted as an emergency measure. Consequently, the gradual approach and soft landing that have benefited this type of asset could be disrupted. On…


fed powell nov 2023

Most economists polled by Reuters believe Fed will cut rates by 25 bps at each meeting for remainder of year

Link Securities | According to a Reuters poll, a majority of economists surveyed believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining policy meetings this year (September, November and December). Moreover, only nine economists out of 101 surveyed expected a cut of half a percentage point next week, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, while 92…


fed jerome 3mayo23

Fed acknowledges cuts could start in September if data hold

Bankinter: Fed minutes of the 30/31 July meeting: Main messages: (i) Current situation: the economy is advancing solidly, albeit at a markedly slower pace than in 2H23, the labour market is cooling and inflation is moderating, although it remains somewhat elevated. (ii) Outlook: lower growth in 2H24 due to a weaker labour market, but growth in 2025 and 2026 will remain in line with its long-term potential. Unemployment could pick…


fed enero 2024

US: Fed shifts rate cut outlook from 2024 to 2025 and 2026 as CPI falls to +3.3% in May

Bankinter: The Fed meets expectations and keeps interest rates (Fed Funds) at 5.25%/5.50%. With respect to the macro picture, it maintains the GDP forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2026. However, it revises upwards both Inflation (PCE) and Underlying Inflation in 2025 and 2026 and continues to miss the 2% target until 2026. The Unemployment Rate is also revised slightly upwards in 2025, 2026 and in the longer term. With regard…


fed enero 2024

Fed members talk of “patience”, first cut not likely until end of year or even 2025

Banc March: Round of statements from Fed members, where the word “patience” has been recurrent in their speeches and they delay the first cut to the end of the year and even 2025. The Atlanta Fed president believes that inflation is too high and does not consider it appropriate to lower the cost of money until the end of the year. He also said he was open to raising rates…


fed powell enero 2024

Fed chairman confirms policy rate spike but will not cut rates until confident inflation is close to 2%

BancaMarch: Federal Reserve Chairman has confirmed the peak in official interest rates. Jerome Powell, has kept his January speech unchanged, indicating that monetary policy will change course at “some point this year”, without specifying a date. He also emphasised the risks of bringing forward the cuts too soon, resulting in a return of inflation and the need for an even tighter policy. Thus, the Fed will not cut rates until…