Chris Lagarde

ECB continues to contradict market expectations with tightening messages

Renta 4 : Today, on a day in which futures point to an opening with little change, the main macro reference will be the number of available job openings in the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) in the US, which is expected to remain high in February (10.5 million expected as opposed to 10.824 million previously), giving signs of a still very solid labour market. This data will…

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Eurozone M3 growth at slowest since 2014: +2.9% year-on-year, down from +3.5% previously, below expected +3%

BancaMarch : In the Eurozone, money supply continues to slow down. In February, M3 growth (the broadest monetary aggregate) moderated more than expected to +2.9% year-on-year, down from +3.5% previously and below the +3% expected. It should be noted that this is the slowest pace of money supply growth since 2014. If we analyse the evolution of loans, the slowdown deepened in loans to households (+3.2% vs. +3.6% previously), with…

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Eurozone economy revived by services sector: composite PMI rises to 54.1 in March

CdM : The eurozone economy seems to be showing signs of coming back to life. In March, the services sector has been driving the revival and economic growth has accelerated to a ten-month high, according to the PMI index. Inflationary pressures have moderated, while employment growth accelerates and business confidence remains resilient. S&P Global’s seasonally adjusted flash composite PMI index of total euro area activity rose for the fifth consecutive…

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Most Eurozone growth in 4Q2022 comes from public spending; data point to slowdown in 1Q23

Santander Corporate & Investment | The final outcome will probably be determined by the economy but, as our economists remind us, the 4Q eurozone GDP data released late last week (0.0% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, Exp 0.0%/1.9%, Last 0.4%/2.4%) mask weak dynamics. The fact is that most of the growth is coming from public spending while weak domestic demand was dragging down imports and explaining the second (poor) growth driver:…


Eurozone liquidity falls 12% in three months

Morgan Stanley analysts explain that excess liquidity in the European market multiplied in the post-Covid phase: from €1.7tn in December 2019 to a peak of €4.8tn in September 2022 and this increase helped stabilise the equity market during 2020. But “in the last three months we have seen this excess liquidity reduce by -12% (part of the ECB’s plan, by ending APP reinvestments and reducing TLTROs)


Services PMIs to return to positive territory in Eurozone for first time in months

Intermoney | On the European continent, we will be looking forward to the activity data that will be offered by the preliminary PMI readings for February. For the first time in several months we will see readings above 50 in several economies and in the eurozone as a whole, especially in the indicators for services and the composite indicator, while in manufacturing activity the PMIs will again show a very…


European Commission upgrades forecasts but inverted German debt curve points to recession

The European Commission has raised its 2023 growth forecast to 0.9% vs 0.3% and lowered its inflation forecast from 6.1% to 5.65% for this year. The note highlights that domestic demand could turn out to be stronger than expected if the recent declines in wholesale gas prices are passed through to consumer prices more strongly, which we doubt, and consumption proves more resilient. In fact, this has had little reaction…

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Eurozone GDP rises 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q22 and 3.5% for whole of 2022

Singular Bank: In Q4, according to Eurostat, the euro zone’s GDP rebounded 0.1% from the previous quarter (vs. +0.3% in Q3). In year-on-year terms, output in the eurozone rose by 1.9%, compared with 2.3% in the previous quarter. Thus, in 2022 as a whole, GDP increased by 3.5% compared with 2021. By countries, France’s GDP in Q4, according to the Insee, registered a slight increase of +0.1% vs. the previous…


Good European data bolster hopes of avoiding recession

Portocolom AV | The US index of leading indicators, which hit a new low on Monday 23rd, seems to indicate that the US economy will enter recession in 2023. This indicator, which includes key economic data with the aim of predicting the rate of growth, has historically had a very high success rate in anticipating recessions. This has been the case in previous crises, such as the Covid-19 crisis, the…


Could the worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years be a leading indicator for the Eurozone?

Santander Corporate & Research | The worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years, since the 2021 confinements, puts a clear question mark over the sustainability of an expected EZ economic recovery that explains the good momentum in credit markets. True, with these PMIs already above 50pt for the first time since June and the third consecutive month of improvement, our economists believe that the EZ may be able…