recovery

Christoph M. Schmidt

“The Rapid Recuperation In World Trade Has Already Enabled Industry to Almost Completely Recover”

Lidia Conde (Francfort) | Christoph Schmidt, chairman of the Franco-German economic think tank for the past year – when he stepped down as chairman of the council of wise men advising the Berlin government – makes no secret of his concerns: “Both the European Green Deal and the Next Generation EU nourish the hope that Europe will emerge stronger from this crisis in the end. But between the EU’s ambitious plans and the final success, the final results, there is a long way to go. And on that road, member states will have to undertake the structural reforms that will increase their long-term growth potential and show their readiness to return to compliance with the stability and growth pact, with the debt rules”.


airlines rescue

Recovery: Slow, But Not So Steady

Johannes Müller Head of Macro Research DWS | Until the Covid-19 virus is finally defeated, the recovery looks set to continue at an uneven pace. In our view, pandemic containment will remain an economic drag for the foreseeable future. Over the course of the summer, we have already seen signs of the initial, V-shaped recovery giving way to a much flatter curve of improving global economic activity. The good news is that most developed countries appear better prepared for potential renewed virus surges in the fall than they were in spring.


frankfurt sklyline

A V-Shaped Bounce In Q3 GDP Is Possible

Chris Iggo (AXA Investment Managers) | The second quarter was disastrous for society and the global economy. The danger on both fronts is passing only slowly. Yet the quarter was great for markets. Barely any asset class delivered a negative return. Trillions of dollars of money was created and central bank balance sheets boomed. It has been a lesson in not underestimating the power of policy. Cheap valuations and rocket-fuel policy drove risk assets. The starting point for Q3 is not quite the same. Where fundamentals go is much more important now.



No Picture

Recovery and electoral expectations

MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy faces 2015 with electoral commitments and weak prospects. The goal of the Popular Party (PP) is to reach enough votes so as to maintain a large part of its power in the Spanish regions and city councils where it has the majority. The final goal is achieving the re-election in the central government by means of achieving the recovery.


No Picture

Change of pace in Europe: Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Belgium will lead growth between 2015 and 2016

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | ECB’s Mario Draghi brought put the bleak panorama that the Eurozone’s economy is facing on the table, and we saw it again reflected in the not-so-promising September manufacturing PMI. The index came in at 50.5 compared to 50.7 in the prior month, whereas EZ Services PMI accelerated at 52.8 for September versus 53.1 in August. Even the composite index plummeted to its lowest fee in the last nine months and reached 52.3. In Germany, both manufacturing and services indexes have also decreased; while in France only manufacturing improved, although it is still contracting.


TLTRO

TLTRO alone might not be a game changer for Eurozone credit recovery

MADRID | The Corner | Supply and demand conditions for Eurozone credit generation are improving – this is clearly reflected in the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey – but the way towards a full normalisation is still long. We believe that reduced bank funding costs might support, but will not aggressively accelerate, the recovery in credit growth. 



No Picture

US residential construction recovers in July

MADRID | The Corner | After two months of decline, US construction rebounds in July at the fastest pace in eight months. As the Commerce Department reported yesterday, the number of housing starts rose 15.7% in July compared to June, reaching an annualized figure of 1.09 million units, the highest in eight months. Meanwhile, applications for building permits in the same month also advanced  8.1% to an annual rate of 1.05 million, after drops of 3.1 percent in June and 5.1 percent in May. Notably the permits to build single-family homes, a segment that accounts for three quarters of the U.S. housing market, increased in July by 0.9% to an annualized figure of 640,000, the highest since December 2013. In addition, permits for units in buildings with five units or more rose 23.6% in July to an annual rate of 382,000, representing its highest growth rate since January 2006.


Greece's return

The challenge in Greece: Funding an emerging economic recovery

ATHENS | By Jens Bastian via Macropolis | A fragile, uneven and weak recovery is gradually manifesting itself in the real economy of Greece. The recent data published by ELSTAT for the first two quarters of GDP performance in 2014 suggests that Greece is on course to register its first quarterly GDP level in positive territory in the third quarter this year.