Madrid Gran Via2

Recovery And Truth

Enrique Badía y Liberal | While we remain attentive to the incidence rate and the numbers of hospitalised and dead, answers to crucial questions in any crisis are scarce or in doubt: what is happening, how long will it last? It is easy to answer that we are contending with a pandemic. However, it is not clear that we know enough about the how and why of each response chosen…

Madrid Gran Via2

We Need Recovery And Growth

Luis Alcaide | In the Romanised Spain of the first two centuries, the so-called Silver Age, an Aragonese, Quintilian, whom his countryman Martial would call “summus mo¬de¬rator juven¬tae”, called for “men of talent, capable of living in a cordial world and participating in public affairs”. Centuries later, in a Spain that was already moving towards modernity, the poet of the upper classes, Campoamor, described those men of talent as “a…


Europe Fails To Recover At The Same Pace As The US Market

Julian Marx (Flossbach Von Storch) | Almost two years have passed since the outbreak of the pandemic and economic output in the Eurozone is still below pre-crisis levels, unlike in the US.The ECB envisages a more cautious monetary policy than the dollar bloc (Australia, Canada and the US): real economic output in the US in calendar year 2021 should already be a good two percent above that of 2019. In the eurozone, on the other hand, the statistics for 2021 will probably remain in some cases significantly below the pre-crisis level.

Spanish economy general

Spain | Outlook For Economic Recovery In 2022

Rafael Domenech (BBVA Research) | Though 2022 should be a better year for GDP growth in the Spanish economy than 2021, the current outlook is also far more uncertain than it was a year ago, due to the appearance of new risks and an increase in existing ones — making forecasts even more volatile. Key points There has been a clear acceleration in recovery over the current year: from a…


‘Delta’ Spelled With A ‘W’

Pablo Pardo (Washington) | In September, the slowdown has, unexpectedly, arrived in the US. The main culprit is the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which is once again claiming 1,500 lives daily and threatens to cause a ‘W’ revival. Until just a month ago, the biggest question regarding the US economy was whether its growth would beat China’s for two years in a row. The last time US GDP growth…

Just Sanchez

Delivering A Fair Recovery

JP Marín-Arrese | The Spanish PM Sánchez seeks to regain his dwindling popular support after the crushing defeat in Madrid’s regional elections back in May. At mid-term, he discovered, much to his surprise, the cost of enforcing long-lasting restrictions to overcome the pandemic. The Opposition took advantage of the people’s weariness and fear of lay-offs. His initial steps to stage a large-scale inclusive revolution either faded away or didn’t pay…

Christoph M. Schmidt

“The Rapid Recuperation In World Trade Has Already Enabled Industry to Almost Completely Recover”

Lidia Conde (Francfort) | Christoph Schmidt, chairman of the Franco-German economic think tank for the past year – when he stepped down as chairman of the council of wise men advising the Berlin government – makes no secret of his concerns: “Both the European Green Deal and the Next Generation EU nourish the hope that Europe will emerge stronger from this crisis in the end. But between the EU’s ambitious plans and the final success, the final results, there is a long way to go. And on that road, member states will have to undertake the structural reforms that will increase their long-term growth potential and show their readiness to return to compliance with the stability and growth pact, with the debt rules”.

airlines rescue

Recovery: Slow, But Not So Steady

Johannes Müller Head of Macro Research DWS | Until the Covid-19 virus is finally defeated, the recovery looks set to continue at an uneven pace. In our view, pandemic containment will remain an economic drag for the foreseeable future. Over the course of the summer, we have already seen signs of the initial, V-shaped recovery giving way to a much flatter curve of improving global economic activity. The good news is that most developed countries appear better prepared for potential renewed virus surges in the fall than they were in spring.

frankfurt sklyline

A V-Shaped Bounce In Q3 GDP Is Possible

Chris Iggo (AXA Investment Managers) | The second quarter was disastrous for society and the global economy. The danger on both fronts is passing only slowly. Yet the quarter was great for markets. Barely any asset class delivered a negative return. Trillions of dollars of money was created and central bank balance sheets boomed. It has been a lesson in not underestimating the power of policy. Cheap valuations and rocket-fuel policy drove risk assets. The starting point for Q3 is not quite the same. Where fundamentals go is much more important now.