Rafael Domenech (BBVA Research) | Though 2022 should be a better year for GDP growth in the Spanish economy than 2021, the current outlook is also far more uncertain than it was a year ago, due to the appearance of new risks and an increase in existing ones — making forecasts even more volatile.
- There has been a clear acceleration in recovery over the current year: from a GDP growth rate of 0.4% in the first half of the year to an expected rate of 4.2% in the second.
- One of the chief uncertainties that has been removed in the last few weeks, is the approval of the general state budget; though it is true that it is based on a more optimistic macroeconomic scenario for 2022 than the general analyst consensus.
- Among the major uncertainties that remain, are those connected to the speed of implementation of NGEU funds and their effect, and the structural reforms required to continue having access to these funds in the next few years.
- In addition, there is also increasing uncertainty surrounding the intensity and persistence of inflationary pressures. Annual inflation in November stood at 5.6% with core inflation having risen to 1.7% — well above the forecasts made at the start of the year and in line with the US and the eurozone.
- The evolution of the pandemic, with new waves in Europe and the new omicron variant, raises new questions about the persistence of supply disruptions, the intensity and pace of economic recovery and international tourism.