Articles by Francisco Vidal

About the Author

Francisco Vidal
Francisco Vidal is Chief Economist at Intermoney. Since 2006, his professional career has been focused on elaborating economic analysis for the group, which has become a reference for financial intermediation in Spain. This is a situation which has allowed him to specialise in the interrelationship between the real and the financial economy, as well as the study of monetary policy.
Fiat Money

From Egypt To Mexico, From The Czech Republic To Ghana… The Burden Of Tightening Monetary Policy Around The World

Francisco Vidal (Intermoney) | In China, the authorities insist that they will support a scenario of solid economic growth with their actions. However, the week began in the Asian giant with the 1 and 5-year LPR rates remaining at 3.7% and 4.6%, respectively. And while in China we are witnessing new promises of support for activity which do not materialise in immediate action, in many other countries we are witnessing…

ECB bonds

ECB Members Show Their Concern About Inflation

Francisco Vidal (Intermoney) | For yet another day, the spotlight is on the words of ECB members. They give their views on their particular vision of the course of inflation, with the consequent impact on the markets. And the latter react by interpreting the statements in terms of the central bank’s speed in withdrawing its stimuli. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported Philip Lane had said privately that they expect…

ursula pedro

The Key to Overcoming the Risk Scenario will be Mainly through Governments and not so much through Central Banks

As the latest OECD simulations rightly point out, the area where there is really room for maneuvering is that of fiscal policies and structural reforms. According to the international organization, in the short term and under a scenario of coordination in the G-20, the aforementioned measures could add up to nearly 0.5 percentage points of GDP in the first year with respect to the central scenario, as opposed to nearly 0.15 percentage points of monetary policy.

ECB meetings

The Position Of The ECB on TLTROs III Could Be Less Generous Than Expected

According to leaks to Reuters about the future format of TLTROs, the third edition of these operations will be designed to limit entities’ appetite for them, with options like toughening the rules for collateral and the establishment of more ambitious targets for credit volumes. According to ECB sources, this reflects the belief that Eurozone economic fundamentals are stronger than in previous years.

The scarce reduction in debt will make the Italian budget inadmissable

The Scarce Reduction In Debt Will Make The Italian Budget Inadmissable For Brussels

In the initiative launched by the Italian authorities towards Brussels, the adequate single approach of avoiding confrontation and waiting to have all the information before commiting itself has been confirmed. The President of the Eurogroup reinforced this approach yesterday by recalling that the creation of a budget is a long process and that he will have to await the draft before giving a firm opinion.

The yuan rose above 6.8 to the dollar

The Market Risks That Can Spoil August (IV): The Yuan

Intermoney | The unanimous approval by the Senate of a law to reduce or eliminate the tariffs applied to around 1,660 products made outside the US, of which half are made in China, could be the perfect excuse for Trump to return to the charge on trade attacks on Chinese interests. However, as we have insisted over the last few weeks, the key to the summer from a Chinese perspective, could lie more in the yuan than trade issues.

The fundamental outlook for Emerging Marketsis not as negative as perceived.

August 2018 Risks (III): The Different Concerns Of Emerging Markets

Intermoney | Other risks to which we must pay attention are those arising from emerging markets. In this case, one should not focus only on one country, as there are numerous fronts open. For example, the latest update to the IMF forecasts cut the growth forecasts for Argentina and Brazil, stressing the more difficult finanacial conditions and the need for adjustments to the Argentinian economy while, in the case of Brazil, it stressed the effect of strikes and political instability.

Twitter and Facebook must grow up

Risks For August (II): Facebook And Twitter Recall Concerns About The Tech Sector

Facebook and Twitter have been significantly punished by investors following figures about users which created doubts about the performance of both companies in the future. In the first case, the number of users active per month increased 1.74% in 2018 to pass from 2.196 millions to 2.234 million, disappointing market expectations and delivering the smallest increase since Facebook provided figures.