Trade barriers are causing more insolvencies in the agricultural sector, while the retail sector is vulnerable to rising import costs. Crédito y Caución expects the United States to deepen its slowdown in 2020. The Spanish credit insurer expects GDP growth of 1.7%, largely supported by private consumption in the face of weak investment, public spending and exports. Although household finances are in better shape than a decade ago, among companies there has been an increase in debt and a deterioration in their credit capacity.
This week Spanish pharmaceutical firm Almirall issued a profit-warning, citing the negative impact of its US business. The stock price has dropped 30% in two days.
The reality being faced in the US and abroad is that the current world order has failed to deliver its promises.
Italy is threatening us with another time bomb. The country’s banks have 360 billion euros of doubtful loans and the EU (that is to say the sinister Eurogroup), as intelligent as ever, is pressuring for the bail-in rules, to which ultraliberal & co are so addicted, to be implemented by the book.
Julius Baer Research | The past years’ least loved commodity has made a silent comeback. Coal prices are up more than 30% from the earlier year lows. Northwest European coal import prices, the leading benchmark, trade above USD 55 per tonne. The comeback is in part related to the oil and natural gas price rally.
AXA IM | Companies have re-leveraged their balance sheets since the global financial crisis (GFC), driven by low borrowing costs. Although heightened, corporate leverage is not currently excessive in developed markets, although we see signs of concern in emerging markets. In this note we assess whether we should be concerned about corporate leverage at current levels.
Hu Shuli via Caixin | The eighth session of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in Beijing on June 6 and 7 received more than the usual attention amid signs of increased tension between the two countries. In addition to tensions over disputed islands and reefs in the South China Sea, friction has been generated in recent months by China’s attempt to be recognized as a “market economy” and America’s…
Jarno Lang | Obama is not only a pop-cultural phenomenon, but also a pragmatic leader. His successor will have to deal with a worldwide net of dependencies.
The big hope of political self-starters like Donald Trump are those voters without a university education, once members of the US middle-class, who accounted for 36% of the electorate in the last elections.