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In the World, World economy 6th June 2023

US labour market maintains strength: non-farm job creation reaches 339K

Bankinter : US non-farm job creation again beats forecasts: 339K vs 195K estimated and 294K previous (revised from 253K). The unemployment rate rebounds to 3.7% versus 3.5% estimated and 3.4% previous (a historical low). Average wages/hour decelerate (year-on-year) to +4.3% versus +4.4% estimated and previous. Assessment: Despite mixed signals from labour market figures, the labour market remains strong. The unemployment rate increased by three tenths and the number of unemployed…

In the World, World economy, World politics 26th May 2023

US debt ceiling: prepare for a shutdown

Franck Dixmier, Global CIO Fixed Income (Allianz GI) | Investors could be forgiven for thinking they have been here before. As the clock ticks down on the US debt limit deadline, markets are once again getting familiar with the intricacies of US politics. In what has become a semi-regular partisan wrangle, politicians in Washington are in talks over raising the federal debt limit before June, the month when the government…

Relevant News Item 25th May 2023

Fed minutes show split on the need for further rate hikes

Link Securities| The minutes of the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that its members were divided on the need for further increases in the benchmark interest rate. In this regard, it was said that, based on expectations of a slow return of inflation to 2%, a further firming of monetary policy at future meetings was likely to be warranted. In general, participants were unsure how much further…

In the World, World economy 17th May 2023

General consensus to raise debt ceiling in US Congress: “default is not an option”

Norbolsa | After Tuesday’s meeting, both Biden and congressional leaders were optimistic about a deal to raise the debt ceiling “in the coming days” even though McCarthy insisted that positions are still far apart. For his part, Biden publicly stated that during the negotiations there was a general consensus that “default is not an option” and thus lowered fears of a worst-case scenario.

Relevant News Item 16th May 2023

NY Empire Industrial Confidence Index plunges unexpectedly to -31.8 points in May vs. 10.8 points in April

Link Securities | The Empire State Manufacturing Index of manufacturing activity in New York, compiled by the New York Federal Reserve, unexpectedly slipped to -31.8 points in May, down from 10.8 points in April, and versus the expected reading of -3.75 points by the analyst consensus. The reading is the lowest in four months, pointing to a sharp drop in manufacturing activity in New York. New orders (-28.0 points vs…

World economy, World politics 16th May 2023

China and the US might not be decoupling but their technologies are bifurcating

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The strategic competition between the US and China started in early 2018 when the Trump administration implemented untargeted import tariffs and reoriented most of its trade efforts towards widening the technology gap between China and the US with a special focus on deep tech, such as semiconductors. The Biden administration has pushed even further in that direction. However, one should not forget that well before…

In the World, World economy 8th May 2023

US labour market remains buoyant

BancaMarch : Official figures released on Friday were positive and job creation in April was high as the number of jobs increased by +253k, with the private sector accounting for 91% of job creation in the month and with the improvement in hiring extending to most sectors. On the less positive side, the figures for the previous two months were revised downwards by -149 thousand jobs. In addition to this…

In the World 26th April 2023

US consumer confidence falls from 104 to 101.3 in April

Link Securities | The Conference Board reported yesterday that the consumer confidence index fell in April to 101.3 points from 104.0 points in March, falling below the 104.1 points expected by FactSet consensus analysts. In April the sub-index measuring consumers’ perceptions of the current situation rose to 151.1 points from 148.9 points in the previous month, while the sub-index measuring expectations, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and…

In the World, World economy 24th April 2023

US composite PMI rises more than expected (53.5) as both services and manufacturing improve

BancaMarch : In the US, business confidence data was also released and in this case was positive as confidence in both services and manufacturing improved. Notably, the composite PMI rose more than expected to 53.5 from 52.3 and well above the expected 51.2. At the sectoral level, the improvement came both on the services side, with the confidence indicator rising to 53.5 from 52.3, and on the manufacturing side, which…

In the World, World economy 17th April 2023

Drop by 1% in US retail sales points to slowdown in private consumption

Banca March : Mixed US consumer spending data. The most negative note was the drop in retail sales in March which points to a slowdown in private consumption. Specifically, retail sales fell -1% month-on-month after dropping -0.2% in the previous month, a figure that is worse than expected and confirms a deterioration in consumption in the first months of the year. On the more encouraging side, the University of Michigan’s…

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