Santander Corporate & Research | The worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years, since the 2021 confinements, puts a clear question mark over the sustainability of an expected EZ economic recovery that explains the good momentum in credit markets. True, with these PMIs already above 50pt for the first time since June and the third consecutive month of improvement, our economists believe that the EZ may be able…
MS | Bart Gysens (analyst) has this Thursday published a report reviewing his preferences within the European property market, positioning himself for a transition from an environment of rising rates to one of recession. Leverage is still the determining factor which the team uses to see where the value is and is not. But as we enter 2023, where the macros see a potential recession, thus driving a greater importance…
Telefónica has been awarded 40 MHz blocks in the 3.6 GHz band and 20 MHz in the 700 MHz band in the latest spectrum auction in the UK. This is the second one held in that country to accelerate the deployment of the new mobile technology. To do so, it has had to pay £448 M (near €532 M). This amount is much lower than initially estimated by the market, which had calculated that Telefónica’s investment in new spectrum in the UK would amount to £700 million (approximately €820 M).
Telefónica and Liberty Global reached an agreement in early May last year to merge their UK businesses and create the market-leading fixed and mobile operator in the country. According to the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), the combination of Telefónica subsidiary and Virgin could lead to higher prices for wholesale fiber and mobile services. Thus they announced an investigation into the merger and its possible consequences before giving the go-ahead to the deal.
Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | I haven’t read the 1,246 pages of the EU-UK trade agreement, so I’m going to rely on trusted sources to make sense of the accord. For example, David Allen Green of the Financial Times argues the trade agreement leaves much unchanged. The Joint Partnership Council, alternating between Brussels and London, will be able to make binding decisions without the involvement of lawmakers. So much for UK “independence”.
After 47 years of membership in the EU and 1,645 days since the British citizens voted their way out, finally early in the afternoon of the 24th, negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost reported on the agreement on the conditions of exit and their new commercial relationship, which amount to near €900 Bn annually. This last minute deal avoids one of the biggest risks facing the Eurozone in recent years, but it is “vague in many aspects” and “both parties will force specific changes in the future”, say analysts.
In the UK, the fiscal party continues. The government announced £12bn of funding for green initiatives this week and £16.5bn in additional defence spending. The government also published its latest public sector finances. For the fiscal year so far, the net borrowing requirement is £215bn, a staggering £169bn more than in the same period last year. The level of net public sector debt exceeded $2trn last month and stands at 100.8% of GDP, a level not seen since the 1960s.
Javier Garcia-Arenas (CaixaBank Research ) | The pension reform currently being prepared in Spain is a hot and pressing issue. After all, the structural deficit of the Social Security system (around 18 billion euros) and the need to ensure the system’s long-term sustainability in the face of demographic ageing are inescapable challenges for our economy. In this context, the minister for Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, José Luis Escrivá, has announced that he intends to boost workplace pension schemes (also known as company pension) in order to encourage long-term saving, as well as indicating that the British model could serve as a good example to follow.
As lockdown began, thousands of patients were sent from hospitals into care homes. In three months 18,562 people living in Care Homes died with COVID-19. Our report As if Expendable highlights the UK Government’s failure to protect older people in care homes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cases of coronavirus are rising again in the build-up to winter, the government must learn lessons from its disastrous decisions and not repeat the same mistakes.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak today delivered a series of new measures and extensions to existing supports to help the UK economy through the winter months following the re-emergence of the coronavirus and re-imposition of wider restrictions on activity.