China

In the World 22nd July 2024

Third Plenum points to more muddling through but with more mud than ever

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s long-awaited Third Plenum is finally over. Four days of high-level meetings (from July 15 to 18) among Party leaders ended with a perplexingly vague read-out of the meeting. The press conference on July 19 has not managed to assuage China watchers’ general impression of an uneventful gathering even if 300 reforms have been counted from official media but, reportedly, most of which already underway….

European economy 14th June 2024

EC finalises new tariffs on Chinese EV imports: taxes set to rise from 10% to around 25%

Norbolsa | The European Commission (EC) is finalising new tariffs on Chinese EV imports, following a lengthy investigation into state subsidies. Taxes on these vehicles could rise from the current 10% to around 25%, according to EU sources, but the figures are still being fine-tuned and countries such as Germany are pushing to lower them because of their dependence on China. Berlin has accepted higher tariffs, but is trying to…

World economy 3rd June 2024

Financial outflow-driven RMB will not help correct China’s external imbalance

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Since the trade war, and in particular after the imposition of US tariffs on China’s electric vehicles and solar panels, market observers have been speculating whether the PBoC will allow further depreciation of the yuan to counteract the impact. The latest RMB movement seems to indicate that this is the case, but the actual situation is more complex than it appears at first glance.The experience…

In the World 31st May 2024

European investors in China are facing weak demand, more competition and tougher regulations

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China has long been a focal point for global companies, European ones included. However, a shift seems to be happening with foreign direct investment (FDI) into China, as it is now plummeting rather than booming. In fact, China’s inward FDI has turned to negative growth for the first time in 25 years. Several questions seem warranted when exploring this phenomenon. Firstly, the deceleration of FDI in…

World economy 28th May 2024

China launches third phase of the $47.5 billion “Big Fund” for semiconductor development

Banca March | China has launched the third phase of the “Big Fund”, amounting to 344 billion yuan ($47.5 billion) dedicated to the development of semiconductors. This phase brings together the largest amount of the three phases: the first phase of 138.7 billion yuan in 2014 and the second phase of 204 billion yuan in 2019. The aim of this fund is to build an independent supply chain, after years…

World economy 14th May 2024

China’s luxury consumption story to stall against structural economic deceleration

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China has become one of the most important luxury consumption markets for foreign brands, but economic headwinds may cloud the outlook. With rising purchasing power and appetite in luxury spending, Chinese consumers have become more relevant globally. This report addresses what to expect in China’s luxury segment amid structural economic deceleration and geopolitical tensions. Introducing Natixis China Luxury Consumption Index We aim to analyze the…

World economy 9th May 2024

Xi’s visit a hard reality check for EU-China relations

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | President Xi Jinping’s European tour, his first in five years, has shown how much EU member states, at least those in the core of Europe, need a reality check. Not only has Xi taken quite some time to visit the continent but in doing so he chose to visit his staunchest European allies, Serbia and Hungary, beyond France. President Emmanuel Macron was an important target…

European economy 7th May 2024

Xi Jinping shows little sign of being willing to offer major concessions to secure more balanced trade with Europe

Norbolsa | French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on Monday urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to ensure more balanced trade with Europe, but the Chinese leader showed little sign of being willing to offer major concessions. In his meetings in Paris, Macron also pressed the Chinese leader to use his influence over Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Xi was arriving in Europe…

World economy 22nd April 2024

US and China continue to dominate global foreign direct investment flows

Global economyCapital Group| It seems that foreign investment patterns have yet to show a decisive successor to China. Globally, foreign direct investment (FDI) as a percentage of GDP peaked around the time of the financial crisis: investment in China stagnated slightly earlier, in the early 2000s, just after its accession to the World Trade Organisation and following rapid inflows into the manufacturing sector. In absolute terms, however, the United States…

World economy 20th February 2024

China is a relevant market for foreign banks, but there are hurdles beyond market entry

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s banking sector technically opened up to full foreign competition in late 2019, as an aftermath of the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing in 2017. The formal announcement has hardly changed the situation of foreign banks operating in China, which have a small and decreasing market share as well as lower profitability than domestic peers. Lower foreign participation than peers Despite the further opening, the share…

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