World Bank downgrades East Asian growth forecasts due to contagion effect from China’s slumping growth forecasts

Banca March: The World Bank has updated its economic forecasts for East Asia and the Pacific in its October report. Although the regions in question have shown a recovery from pandemic levels, the association warns of slow development. While the outlook for China’s output rates in 2023 is maintained (5.1%), those for next year 2024 are down from April’s estimates (4.8% to 4.4%). Likewise, the contagion effect of the Chinese…

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US and China one step closer to strengthening diplomatic ties

White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met this weekend in Malta. The aim is to pave the way for a meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping expected to take place in November. The two governors may have the opportunity to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in San Francisco. The Chinese minister said the two sides had agreed to hold…

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China offers more favourable terms to first-time homebuyers to revive property sector

Banca March: China is taking steps to revive the real estate sector. In order to support the real estate market and revive the economy, the Chinese government is once again focusing on demand. On the one hand, local governments in major cities are offering more favourable conditions to first-time homebuyers. On the other hand, for people wishing to buy a second home, the country had strong restrictions to avoid massive…

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US limits American investment in Chinese tech companies

BancaMarch| US President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed an executive order that effectively limits US investment in several Chinese tech firms. According to Biden, China’s strategy facilitates and supports “advances in sensitive technologies and products that are critical to the military, intelligence, surveillance or cyber capabilities of other countries”. The ban is limited to three key sectors of the Asian giant: semiconductors, quantum computing and artificial intelligence. At the same…


China’s GDP data point to need for stimulus, but will it come?

China published its second-quarter GDP data on Monday with a big – but disappointing – number, 6.3% growth year on year. The reason for the disappointment comes from the hugely positive base effect, as last year’s second-quarter GDP growth was virtually because of the severe lockdowns happening in Shanghai and elsewhere in the country. The underwhelming growth in the second quarter is not all about the lack of external demand….

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Li Qiang says China remains on track to achieve its growth target of around 5% by 2023

Link Securities| In his speech to the Summer Davos Forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China is still on track to achieve its annual growth target of close to 5%, with 2Q2023 expected to grow faster than 1Q2023. The Chinese Premier acknowledged that China’s development still has imbalances and is inefficient, and that economic output per capita still remains low. He argued that companies, not governments, must decide how to…

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China manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rises to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April

Link Securities| China’s advance manufacturing activity index, the manufacturing PMI compiled by media group Caixin unexpectedly rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April. The FactSet consensus of analysts had expected a lower reading of 49.4. An index reading above 50 points indicates expansion in activity from the previous month, while a reading below that level indicates contraction in activity. Production increased at its fastest pace in eleven months,…

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China-Russia trade ties enhanced in response to Western sanctions

Alicia García herrero (Natixis) | During the past fifteen months after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, China and Russia’s trade value increased by 36.5% compared to pre-war levels, showing their much-enhanced ties in merchandise trade. Meanwhile, in addition to the upswing of the headline amount, some new patterns in their trade structure are also worth watching. For example, Russia has moved up rapidly in the rank of China’s external…

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China: industrial production and retail sales up 5.6% and 18.4% in April, respectively

Banca March: Activity accelerates in China, but at a slower pace than expected. The April set of activity indicators showed a rebound in growth, as industrial production accelerated to 5.6% while retail sales advanced 18.4%. Although these data are very positive and confirm that the reopening of the economy is boosting activity, they fell short of expectations (10.9% and 21% respectively). On the consumer spending side, the best performing components…