Unemployment in China, which rose to 6.2% in February, is down to 5.4% in September – only marginally higher than 5.2% in December 2019. Industrial production increased 6.9% year on year in September – the highest increase since December 2019. This data point has vindicated the strong recovery in Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) – which are important, but only show month on month change in activity. Retail sales – an important barometer of consumer wellbeing – have also bounced back and risen by 3.3% year on year in September after being negative between January and July this year.
Jinyue Dong / Betty Huang (BBVA Research) | A batch of economic activity indicators announced yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics pointed to a continuing growth momentum in August. Industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales all showed remarkable improvement from their previous month’s readings and beat the market consensus.
By Kevin Flanagan, (Head of Fixed Income Strategy, WisdomTree) / This year has got off to an unusual start in the financial markets. Typically, the focus would be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and/or economic developments, but unfortunately the coronavirus has taken centre stage. I thought it would be useful to offer some insights from a bond market perspective, using the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak of November 2002 to July 2003 as a comparative event.____¨
The People’s Bank of China pumps 1.2tn yuan into the financial system to protect the economy from the coronavirus Global stocks extended their rally last week despite concerns that the coronavirus will slow global growth. Experts at Julius Baer continue to argue that stocks are susceptible to a short-term correction and consider any weakness as an entry opportunity for long-term investors.
Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | Policymakers in China made a credible move in their attempt to regain control over the current situation. After injecting liquidity into financial markets, they announced the potential for a cure/vaccination available soon and later cut some tariffs on US imports. Fear-stricken markets took a sigh of relief.
The world has changed a lot because China has changed a lot. China’s share of global GDP has risen from a negligible 2% in 1990 to 15.9%. Meanwhile, the other powers have fallen in that period: Japan, from 14 to 5.8%; Europe, from 35% to 21.9%; and the USA, from 27% to 23.9%, according to Weltbank data. So hundreds of thousands of jobs in Germany are now dependent on China. And all over the world, because China today accounts for 1/3 of world growth.
Dave Yin (Caixin) | China is making major revisions to its antitrust law for the first time in more than 11 years to give it more teeth while reining in the dominance of the country’s internet goliaths.China is making major revisions to its antitrust law for the first time in more than 11 years to give it more teeth while reining in the dominance of the country’s internet goliaths.
Magdalene Teo, Fixed Income Research Asia, Eric Mak, Equity Research Analyst Asia, Julius Baer │China has opted for interest rate reform (to be more market-oriented) instead of announcing a benchmark rate cut, so liquidity flow is more targeted to the segments that need it.
Shaun Riordan │ The Hong Kong protests have now entered their tenth week. Over the weekend protestors are reported to have fought running battles with the police in the Metro system. The police have had recourse to batons and tear gas. The dangers for Hong Kong´s political and economic future are clear. But the dangers are much broader than Hong Kong. Markets should be watching carefully.
Íñigo Isardo (Link Securities) | This week will be affected by the uncertainties of the trade conflict between the US and China after the latest “turn of the screw” introduced by US President Donald Trump into the trade negotiations. Last Thursday Trump announced on Twitter the imposition of 10% tariffs from 1 September on 300 Bn$ of imports from China which so far have not had to pay tariffs.