US jobs

US labour market strength (unemployment 3.4%) hinders Fed’s roadmap

Bankinter: Non-agricultural job creation (January) reaches 517K vs 188K estimated and 223K previous. The unemployment rate stands at 3.4% vs. 3.6% estimated and 3.5% previous. Wages increase +4.4% vs. +4.6% previously (+4.3% estimated). Analysis: The data reflect the strength of the labour market, but may hinder the Fed’s roadmap. The future evolution of interest rates depends, to a large extent, on the evolution of inflationary pressures, including those coming from…


Iberdrola tops 7,500 employees in US, its main investment destination

Norbolsa | Iberdrola has surpassed 7,500 employees at its US subsidiary Avangrid, while at the same time generating a total of 70,000 jobs in the country through its purchases and investments. As the electricity company explained in a statement, the United States is the main destination for its investments, with more than $21,500 million (€19,723 million) for the three-year period 2023-2025. Regulatory stability and the commitment of the different administrations…

US retail holiday season 2022

US: Christmas campaign hits $936.3 billion, +5.3% compared to +13.5% in 2021, although above average of last 10 years (+4.9%)

Bankinter| Holiday Season sales (1 November to 31 December) increase +5.3% vs +13.5% in 2021 according to the National Retail Federation. The figure falls short of the latter’s forecast of +6%/+8%. They amount to 936,300 M$ vs 942,600/960,400 M$ expected. According to the Association, part of the purchases were brought forward to October to take advantage of the promotions that were launched across the board that month to reduce inventories….


Economists surveyed by WSJ expect US economy to enter recession in 2023

Link Securities| In the latest quarterly survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, economists indicated that, although inflation has started to decline, they still expect high interest rates to push the US economy into recession in 2023. On average, business and academic economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%, down slightly from 63% in the October survey. Both percentages are historically high outside…

Federal Reserve

Jobs and growth data won’t deter the Fed’s resolve

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Last Friday, Wall Street jumped on employment and services data. Jobs openings, while better than expected, signalled a downward path. The service sector contracted for the first time till 2020. The ensuing bullish reaction shows the markets bet the Fed might undertake a U-turn earlier than pointed out in the last FOMC minutes. Investors seem to outwit the Fed, disregarding its determination to keep rates tight enough…

US Congress

The US Congress gridlock

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Kevin McCarthy’s failed attempts to snatch election as Congress Speaker not only signals a severe divide within the Republican party. It may also hamper the ability to run the country. Rebels aim to block the White House agenda, even launch an impeachment against Biden, and seem ready to put the US Government in default by refusing to increase the debt ceiling next October. They will likely question…

XI Biden

Biden, Xi focus on Taiwan and forget about Ukraine

Alicia García Herrero * (Natixis) | It is hard to imagine a more momentous meeting than the one Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping just held on the sidelines of the Group of Twenty meeting in Bali. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence certainly made things easier, as it opened the door for the G20 communiqué to address the Ukraine war, but it is not going to go beyond a compromise…

US elections, Joe Biden

USA: no Democratic landslide

Fernando González Urbaneja | We are learning in these uncertain times that it is all bulls up to the tail, that the electoral results are those that are certified by the bodies in charge of controlling the votes. And that often takes time. In Brazil, the electronic system made it possible to verify Lula’s victory on election night itself, albeit by a very small margin, but enough to avoid any…

Iberdrola Avangrid

Iberdrola could divest some €2 B in renewables (total or partial) in the US given its high investment level

Renta 4 |According to press reports, Iberdrola’s US subsidiary Avangrid is preparing a plan via which the group is looking at divesting in some renewable assets (total or partial) to strengthen the balance sheet ahead of its investment plan over the next few years. This amounts to 14.6 billion usd until 2025, including the purchase of PNM (6.5 billion usd) if the courts allow that to materialise. The divestments could…


“The U.S. Economy Will Enter A Mild Recession In H1 2023.”

Christian Nolting (Deutsche Bank) | The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries peaked in mid-June, then fell sharply in July before rising again in August. The decline for Treasuries with shorter maturities was less pronounced in July, causing the yield curve to invert, which many investors regard as a precursor to recession. We forecast that the U.S. economy will enter a mild recession in H1 2023. Whereas growth concerns have been…