NEW YORK | By Markus Jaeger via Deutsche Bank Research | The US today, like Britain under the gold standard, acts as the world’s banker. It is the most important source of international liquidity, leading countries to hold USD-denominated assets. Not only does this allow the US and especially the US Treasury to tap into a large investor base ready to finance current account and fiscal deficits at a lower cost. To the extent that the demand for international liquidity and USD assets exceeds the US balance-of-payments deficit, it allows the US to recycle short-term foreign liabilities into long-term assets.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Investors are closely looking economists’ forecasts about the next rate hike in the United States. Until recently, the vast majority opted for movements in the second part of 2015. Now, after the last job creation data, some analysts believe that the rise could come as early as 1Q15.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Maybe central banks and market participants are giving too much weight to the unemployment rate when trying to gauge future inflation. Instead, they should look at the short-term unemployment rate, because the long-term unemployed risk becoming economic pariahs.
MADRID | The Corner | Head of Economics at the International Energy Agency remarked that “the investment in renewables in Europe has tripled the US’ investment in the entire shale gas production.” Prices are 20% below the right level to recover the cost of new investments due to the existence of overcapacity and subsidised prices in renewables.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | It has been one year since, out of the blue, Edward Snowden came out to tell everybody that the Internet is ‘supervised’ by the NSA. And it has been only four days since British giant Vodafone announced that at least six different governments tap its calls. We have lost our online virginity, in case there were still some who had it (apparently, there were). Now we know that the wandering around Internet is almost as private as yelling in the middle of the street.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Freight trains and flipped houses are not ‘cool’ indicators. But they tell much more about the US than the unemployment rate or the GDP figures. The last figures show how the U.S. keeps on gaining strength.
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes | Let´s see. For his memoirs as Fed Chairman Greenspan pocketed 8 million from Penguin. Given PCE inflation Bernanke should get at least 9 million from the same editor. But Bernanke´s book is worth more. Greenspan presided over the Great Moderation. Great Moderations don´t give rise to dramas as does a Great Recession (Lesser Depression).
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | The ‘peddlers’ of fiscal stimulus who say monetary policy (the Fed) is powerless at the ZLB-LT, and the inflation “nutters” have both done a grave disservice.
MADRID | By David Fernández, financial analyst | According to a JP Morgan report, natural gas prices in the US are at least 50% cheaper than in the UK and just a third of what Germans pay.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Despite all the Quantitative Easing charges, there’s simply ‘no inflation to be seen since the ‘recovery’ took-off four years ago.