Morgan Stanley | In reality, during H1 2022 the market was already discounting the FED and the toughening of financial conditions. So we do not see the FED as an additional risk: the biggest risk we see is the declines in future profits. In this respect, our advance profits’ model projects a significant drop in EPS growth over the coming months. A key input in this model is the ISM…
Hans-Jörg Naumer (Allianz Global Investors) | We still believe it’s quite likely that the world economy continues to grow, albeit weakly. However, in the second half of 2022, the risks of a slowdown in the short-term have substantially increased. A continued heightening of geopolitical crises and the consequent rise in the prices of energy and food, could cause a sharp decline in the European economy, already in difficulty, and even in the…
Morgan Stanley |The climate legislation in the US is improving the profitability outlook for investments in clean energy, since countries are competing for capital and accelerating the new energy ambitions in the wake of the global energy crisis. Previously, the US was the top destination for capital. However, the gas crisis in Europe has changed the preference for assignation of capital of those companies in our coverage: a: 1) Europe,…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | US President Joe Biden’s long-awaited trip to Asia got off to a poor start, after ASEAN leaders’ official visit to the White House saw hardly any relevant policy decisions, and Biden’s stingy pitch of $150 million to ASEAN economies. Based on that example and Biden’s difficult political situation at home, the stakes for his trip to Asia were low. But reality has proved the pessimism…
Fitch explains that for large US banks “the sharp rise in interest rates across the curve led to unrealised losses in AFS (Available-for-Sale) securities portfolios with an estimated negative effect on CET1 ratios of 20-110bp”. Specifically, according to Bloomberg, JPMorgan reported latent losses of about USD 7.4 billion on a total of USD 313 billion of Treasuries and other bonds in its available-for-sale portfolio in the Q1’22 results announced last…
Simon Harvey, Head of FX Market Analysis at Monex Europe | On the one hand, core inflation moderated in March with a sequential slowdown from 0.5% m-o-m to 0.3% m-o-m, while on the other hand, headline inflation beat expectations. Headline inflation rose by 1.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations, while the annualised rate exceeded expectations by 0.1 percentage point to 8.5%. The slowdown in the month-on-month core CPI to the…
Clàudia Canals & José Ramón Díaz (CaixaBank Research) | For months now, analysts of the US economy have been debating the labour market’s difficulty in returning to pre-pandemic levels, despite GDP having done so back in Q2 2021. It is surprising that one of the world’s most flexible labour markets is taking so long to regain normality, especially when compared to what is going on in countries such as Spain,…
Amitrajeet A. Batabyal ( The Conversation) In December 1978, the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping introduced economic reforms that dramatically altered China’s economy by strengthening trade and cultural ties with the West. Beginning in the 1990s, these reforms set China on a trajectory to become what it is today: a nation with a dynamic and substantially market-driven economy that is also the world’s second-largest. U.S. residents have enjoyed lower-priced goods exported…
Julian Marx (Flossbach Von Storch) | Almost two years have passed since the outbreak of the pandemic and economic output in the Eurozone is still below pre-crisis levels, unlike in the US.The ECB envisages a more cautious monetary policy than the dollar bloc (Australia, Canada and the US): real economic output in the US in calendar year 2021 should already be a good two percent above that of 2019. In the eurozone, on the other hand, the statistics for 2021 will probably remain in some cases significantly below the pre-crisis level.
Hernán Galperin (The Conversation) | The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signed into law by President Joe Biden on Nov. 15, 2021, was hailed by the White House and advocates as a historic investment to improve internet access in America. I believe the infrastructure plan should be celebrated as a historic moment for broadband, but not so much because of the money it brings to the table. Rather, it is because of the way the law treats internet access in America.