US: Christmas campaign hits $936.3 billion, +5.3% compared to +13.5% in 2021, although above average of last 10 years (+4.9%)

US retail holiday season 2022

Bankinter| Holiday Season sales (1 November to 31 December) increase +5.3% vs +13.5% in 2021 according to the National Retail Federation. The figure falls short of the latter’s forecast of +6%/+8%. They amount to 936,300 M$ vs 942,600/960,400 M$ expected. According to the Association, part of the purchases were brought forward to October to take advantage of the promotions that were launched across the board that month to reduce inventories. Despite this, during the five-day period between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, sales reached, sales reached an all-time high of $196.7 billion, exceeding expectations. Online sales increase +9.5% to $261.6 bn vs +10%/+12% expected.

Analysis: Apart from seasonal effects, high food prices reduce consumers’ purchasing power for other products. The categories with the largest declines are furniture and household products (-1.1%) and electronics (-5.7%). Nevertheless, growth is above the average of the last 10 years (+4.9%). In 2023 we expect a moderation in consumption as already shown by the -1.1% decline in retail sales in December.

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The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.