recovery

Spanish economy 23rd March 2021

Spain Aspires to Recover 40 M International Tourists This Year

Spain’s government is confident that it can recover around 40 M international tourists this year, half the level recorded in 2019, when almost 84 M foreign tourists were counted. In this recovery, the health passport prepared by the EU for the summer will be a key factor. In fact, the tourism sector expects to recover around 7.5 M foreign visitors once the passport comes into force, which, added to the 19 million that arrived in Spain in 2020, leave the figures still far from those forecasts of 40M.

The catalyst for European high yield spread widening against US was index composition changes

European economy 25th February 2021

Between Europe And US…Clearly Europe

Morgan Stanley | The size of the Recovery Fund is very relevant, equivalent to 5% of the European Union’s GDP (10-15% in Greece, Spain and Italy). In contrast to the US, where the fiscal stimulus has been earmarked for more immediate/current spending, in Europe most of it is devoted to future investment with a long-lasting effect over the next 3-5 years. This long term duration is the key concept and the fundamental reason for our preference.

Spanish economy 18th February 2021

The Reforms That Spain Needs For Facilitating Recovery After Historic Economic Contraction

Scope Ratings | The government is prioritising growth over budgetary discipline, which for the moment is appropriate given the large output gap. Spain will run a wide budget deficit for some time. For 2021, the authorities forecast a deficit of 7.7% of GDP, which is based on a rather optimistic economic scenario. Thus, should growth be weaker than expected in the coming years, Spain’s public finances would deteriorate further – a risk captured with Scope’s Negative Outlook.

In the World, World economy 21st January 2021

China Has A Buffer For Contingencies

Intermoney | China surpassed its economic growth previous to the health crisis. Specifically it recorded 6.5% per year in Q4’20, when in the same period in 2019 it grew by 6%. Thus guaranteeing China’s rapid recovery, while also highlighting the country’s margin for facing up to any temporary turbulence linked to the resurgence of COVID-19. Furthermore, China would encourage the population to continue working to limit the number of people returning to their places of origin during the New Year celebrations.

Spanish economy 4th January 2021

2021: Notable But Incomplete Recovery Of The Spanish Economy

CaixaBank Research (Oriol Carreras Baquer and Javier García Arenas | We expect growth in economic activity to pick up in Q2, when the most vulnerable people should have been immunised and international travel can recover more strongly, with growth in the Spanish economy reaching around 6.0% in 2021. While the pace of recovery is high, this would still leave the economy 6.2% below the pre-crisis GDP level. In fact, we do not expect the economy to return to pre-crisis levels until 2023.

Spanish economy 30th October 2020

The Eurozone Grows At A Pace Never Seen Before: So Does Spain, But There Is Nothing To Celebrate

The Eurozone economy grew by record high of 12.7% in the third quarter with expansion including the four major countries: Germany by 8.2%, France by 18.2%, Italy by 16.1% and Spain by 16.7%. This rebound reflected the largest increase since statistics started being kept in 1995. Specifically, Spanish historical GDP’s followed a plunge of almost 18% in the previous three months. However, these figures has a sort of bittersweet taste as they coincide with the reintroduction of strict containment measures across the region which are likely to make the expected recovery reverse.

Spanish economy 27th October 2020

Spain: Expecting The Unexpected

Economists are getting used to expecting the unexpected. The unprecedented fall in Spain’s GDP—seen during the first half of the year—was followed by one of the highest growth rates ever recorded. In the third quarter of the year, quarterly GDP growth was around 14%. The unusual extent of the growth seen during the recovery is mirrored by the atypical way in which it has taken shape. Growth is expected to return to more ‘normal’ levels in the fourth quarter, i.e. about 2%. While this rate is high in comparison with any quarter in Spain’s recent history, it indicates a sharp slowdown.

In the World, World economy 21st October 2020

China: Small Data, Big Impact

Unemployment in China, which rose to 6.2% in February, is down to 5.4% in September – only marginally higher than 5.2% in December 2019. Industrial production increased 6.9% year on year in September – the highest increase since December 2019. This data point has vindicated the strong recovery in Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) – which are important, but only show month on month change in activity. Retail sales – an important barometer of consumer wellbeing – have also bounced back and risen by 3.3% year on year in September after being negative between January and July this year.

Ibex, Markets, Spanish economy 16th September 2020

Inditex Returns To Profitability And Generates €734 M Net Cash In The Second Quarter

Inditex has seen a “rapid recovery” in the second half of its fiscal year 2020-2021, after returning to profits of 214 million euros in this period (between 1 May and 31 July), and leaving behind the loss of 409 million euros in the first three months. Sales recovered from -44% in the first quarter to -31% in the second quarter, despite as many as 87% of the Group’s stores still being closed in May. Today, 98% of Inditex’s stores are open, with restrictions still in place in some specific markets.

Spanish economy 8th September 2020

Spain’s Full Recovery Will Come In 2023

Intermoney | There are important reasons for maintaining a prudent attitude with regard to the Spanish economy, situating its full recovery in the year 2023. This would mean that we would lose more than a decade of the fledgling 21st century. On the other hand, there are also reasons to hope the recovery will eventually take shape and not be too far off. These include the encouraging development of the COVID-19 vaccines, the decisive response from the ECB and the EU, and a lesser impact of the crisis than feared on large European partners and customers.

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