Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | Greece was in free fall mode when at the European Central Bank they had the funny idea of pushing the country …downwards. The ECB said it had frozen all operations with Greek banks, which already are suffering a killing capital drain: “Central bank head George Provopoulos told Papoulias that Greeks have withdrawn as much as €700 million ($891 million) and the situation could worsen, according to the transcript…
MADRID | Markets have been plunged into utter chaos by the Greek political deadlock and the prospect parties staunchly opposed to the EU bail out plan may have the upper hand in the incoming elections. Panic has also been driven by light comments picturing Greece’s eviction from the euro as an anodyne and somehow inevitable event. Such a bullish appraisal does not emerge from Anglo Saxon analysts so much inclined to…
It was Germany, with a 0.5 percent growth of GDP in the first quarter of this year, that helped the euro zone avoid enter technical recession territory. GDP remained stable in both the euro are and the EU during January to March of 2012 compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Compared with the same quarter of the previous…
After the news came in of French president François Hollande’s brief encounter with the ever irresistible forces of nature, I began to consider in all seriousness what my mother said about the just sworn-in European leader: “poor thing,” she had muttered during our daily London-Valencia FaceTime conference, which is motherly talk for the more common ‘that guy’s a loser’ remark. Indeed, he was struck by lightning twice in just hours. Here’s the…
MADRID | The injection of public money and nationalisation of Bankia ends a compelling need with a solution, earlier discarded, that in the US or the UK has been long ago adopted but neither the Germans or the French want to face, in spite of many of their banks being as weak as some the Spanish entities may be. François Hollande’s arrival to the presidency of France is also good news:…
By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | In brief, Germany would lose out in competitiveness with the rest of the world, were it to accept a monetary expansion policy. Germany is a big exports country, not just to the euro zone but to the outside, too. Check the graph as a proof. Foreign manufacturing orders from the rest of the world, in fact, are growing up quickly while demand from the…
All the way from Afi analysts in Madrid, we got this simple and colourful chart comparing purchasing managers index figures of different countries in September 2011 (because it was the month when global manufacturing activity recorded the latest lowest levels) and March-April 2012, with a third column that brings up the variation between those dates. The fact is that cyclical divergence between the euro zone and the rest of the…
MADRID | The reform of the pension system in Spain is planned to help to improve the outlook for sustainability of the system by reducing pension expenditure as a share of GDP. It should weigh in towards reducing the public deficit, too. At BBVA, analysts have drawn some basic comparisons between the Spanish and the German pension systems. “Given uncertainties about employment, productivity and demographics, it is appropriate for the…
NEW YORK | Restless and suspicious. That is how Wall Street seems to be feeling after France and Greece’s pushback against austerity measures. U.S. stock futures fell on Monday, while Treasuries gained. Investors wonder whether the stimulus advocated will derail bailout deals. And what will happen now that the Sarkozy-Merkel tandem is broken and the Greek parliament will have three new anti-bailout parties represented. This added to the uncertainty created by…
MADRID | Brussels seems to start taking growth into serious consideration. Up to now it follows the line that bringing deficit under tight control would be enough to trigger recovery, austerity standing as the only recipe to cure every shortcoming. The severe downturn that currently plunges European economies into utter disarray is casting doubts on the merits of such a simplistic view. Countries having lived beyond their means face now a…