By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | John Authers, in Trends That Don’t Seem to Make Sense, have some pertinent questions to share. The one that has attracted my attention is: Why is the euro still so strong when at all other times a currency with so many risks would be certain to weaken? Resilience of the euro is startling and damaging. The eurozone’s crisis has been driven by balance of payments problems…
MADRID | Spain seems crippled by mounting economic woes. It faces a steep rise in risk premium fuelled by plunging confidence on its ability to reverse the bleak outlook ahead. Recession takes its toll in terms of higher unemployment, budgetary deviations and extensive deterioration in the banking sector. Reforms undertaken so far have failed to deliver any tangible benefit. Labour market overhaul has only helped to accelerate lay-offs, with no impact…
FRANKFORT | That is the view from Berlin: the biggest problem Germany contends with is Europe. And this is so particularly because of this fact, more than 17 million people are unemployed in the euro zone. But while in Austria the unemployment rises to 4.2% and 5.7% in Germany, the Spanish labour market suffers the tragedy of jobless figures that come to 23.6%. And there is no prospect of improvement. The problem is…
By Tania Suárez, in Madrid | Manuel Sousa Andrade is head of investment services and trading at Saxo Bank. Sousa proposes that if we want to get out of the current crisis, it’s necessary to get rid of the wrongs of the past and to change investors’ habits. Regarding the public debt, you say that investors want to ‘protect themselves’ and that’s why they ask for ever higher yields. Can…
By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | Spain’s 2012 budget brings a contraction in public spending of €18 billion and an increase in taxes of €9 billion, both items totaling €27 billion, which would put central government deficit at 3.5%. To reach the pursued 5.3%, the rest of the effort corresponds to the autonomous regional governments, not exactly the most successful part of the public administration in matters regarding austerity. In addition,…
The slowdown in the European cycle begins to appear on the figures about tourism in Spain. The drop in flow of foreign tourists from Germany and the UK, with a share of above 35% of the total, weighs down in part the evolution of total inflow of tourists during the first two months of the year. Yet, until now, we are only witnessing a containment in the growth rate after a exceptionally good 2011, considering it is a period of crisis, analysts…
By Gustavo Matías | Professor Emeritus at MIT, Peter Temin understands why German Chancellor Angela Merkel bullies everyone into austerity. But he disagrees. Temin believes too many, too deep budget cuts can prevent countries from paying their debts as it has already been the case in Greece. So Germany could destroy the euro and put the global economy under risk? Something similar happened in 1931, also because of Germany’s influence, and led…
A curated selection of links we hope can enlighten us all; some come from our corner, some do from other corners of the net. And as always, our comment widgets are anxious to get your suggestions. Europe needs a new …Napoleon Here they come, the peripherals rebel! If you are looking for EU imbalances, try the German surplus What the German commentators think of the ECB’s LTROs Places women (and everyone…
By Julia Pastor and Tania Suarez, in Madrid | Pablo Díez, at Nordkapp’s asset management department argues that implementation of austerity as the only measure to sort the crisis out will bring social chaos in Europe. Yet, Díez is unsure about how right Spain’s president Mariano Rajoy is in rejecting the deficit target of 4.4% this year. Do you think it would have been ‘suicidal’ to commit Spain to Brussels’…
LONDON | Odd. After months of mild fireworks of demonstrations against austerity throughout Spain, it seems hard to believe that Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, international economics editor at The Daily Telegraph, would be struck. Even president Mariano Rajoy acknowledged that his reform plans for the labour market would probably spark a general strike. But Evans-Pritchard was struck, nevertheless: “In the twenty years or so that I have been following EU affairs closely, I cannot remember such a…