Bankinter: The German Trade Balance surprises on the upside and rebounds again in the month – Trade Balance (January): €27.5bn versus €21bn expected and €22.4bn previous (revised from €22.2bn); Exports: +6.3% month-on-month against +1.5% expected and -4.2% previous (revised from -4.6%); Imports: +3.6% compared to +1.8% expected and -6.5% previous (revised from -6.7%).
Assessment: Both components, Exports and Imports, beat expectations in January. However, this improvement is the result of a strong rebound in Exports, whose acceleration is at its highest since June 2020. A positive reading, as it is a welcome sign for the economic cycle. The data is encouraging for a German economy that has accumulated quarters of weakness (-0.3% in 4Q 2023 vs +0.0% in 3Q23).
