German industrial production less weak than expected; economy could reach a turning point

alemania germany ZEW

Bankinter : Germany’s industrial production in March was less weak than expected: -3.3% year-on-year against -3.6% expected and -5.3% previous (revised from -4.9%). The month-on-month figure was -0.4% against -0.7% expected and +1.7% previous (revised from +2.1%).

Bankinter’s analysis: No market impact after the release last week of German GDP for 1Q2024, which avoided a technical recession by rising more than expected: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter versus -0.5% quarter-on-quarter against -0.5% quarter-on-quarter and +0.0% quarter-on-quarter 3. We expect Germany to be at a turning point after the weak economic situation of the last months, weighed down by consumption, investment and industry. Both ZEW and IFO show signs of recovery, but the Manufacturing PMI remains stuck in the contraction zone (<50) since June 2022.

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