Bankinter : Germany’s industrial production in March was less weak than expected: -3.3% year-on-year against -3.6% expected and -5.3% previous (revised from -4.9%). The month-on-month figure was -0.4% against -0.7% expected and +1.7% previous (revised from +2.1%). Bankinter’s analysis: No market impact after the release last week of German GDP for 1Q2024, which avoided a technical recession by rising more than expected: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter versus -0.5% quarter-on-quarter against -0.5% quarter-on-quarter…

In an international comparison of business locations, economics professors gave Germany a grade of just 3.4 (on a scale of 1 to 6, where 1 is the best score). This is according to the latest ifo Institute Economists Panel. A grade of 3 was awarded by 38 percent of respondents, 20 percent gave a 2, 17 percent a 4, and 20 percent a 5. “This poor result is quite worrying…

Bankinter : The German government has improved its growth estimates for 2024. It revises upwards by one tenth of a percentage point to +0.3% YoY (vs +0.2% prev.) the GDP growth expected this year. Maintains the estimate of +1.0% for 2025. Analysis: Positive news. The German government expects both consumption and industrial activity to perform better than estimated this year. The good evolution of inflation (+2.2% in March), the likely…

Norbolsa| Germany recorded a €2.29 billion deficit in international electricity trade last year, driven by the closure of its last nuclear power plant and cheaper foreign energy imports. Germany imported electricity at a cost of €5.7 billion in 2023, offset by export revenues of €3.5 billion, pushing Europe’s largest economy into a negative electricity trade balance for the first time in years. Germany switched off its last three nuclear power…

Bankinter: The German Trade Balance surprises on the upside and rebounds again in the month – Trade Balance (January): €27.5bn versus €21bn expected and €22.4bn previous (revised from €22.2bn); Exports: +6.3% month-on-month against +1.5% expected and -4.2% previous (revised from -4.6%); Imports: +3.6% compared to +1.8% expected and -6.5% previous (revised from -6.7%). Assessment: Both components, Exports and Imports, beat expectations in January. However, this improvement is the result of…

Bankinter : Trade Balance (Dec): €22.2bn versus €19bn expected against €20.8bn previous (revised from €20.4bn). Exports -4.6% versus -2.8% expected versus +3.5% previous. Imports -6.7% versus -1.9% expected versus +1.5% previous. Assessment: The improvement in the trade surplus stems from a sharp drop in imports in the month, reflecting the weakness of the country’s domestic demand. 4Q23 GDP contracted -0.3% year-on-year (versus +0.0% in 3Q23) resulting in a -0.3% year-on-year…

Banca March: Yesterday confirmed the entry into recession of the German economy in 2023. Germany’s GDP fell by 0.3% for the year as a whole, after +1.8% in 2022, hurt by high inflation, rising interest rates and high energy costs. We highlight the negative performance of industry, down 2%, despite the positive contribution of the automotive sector and the manufacture of other transport equipment. There was also minimal growth in…

Bankinter: Industrial Production in November was worse than expected: -4.8% year-on-year versus -4.0% expected and -3.4% previously (revised from -3.5%). In monthly data: -0.7% month-on-month against +0.3% expected and -0.3% previously (revised from -0.4%). Bankinter assessment: Weak data. This is the sixth consecutive decline of the indicator in annual rate and reflects that the weakness of the manufacturing sector is still present. The slowdown in demand in a context of…

Link Securities | As released yesterday by the German Federal Employment Agency, Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.9% in December from a revised 5.8% in November, bringing the reading in line with the FactSet consensus of analysts. December’s is the highest unemployment rate since May 2021. The number of unemployed rose by 5,000 from November to 2.703 million in December, making it the eleventh consecutive month of rising…