Brasserie servicios

Surprise bounce in services flash PMIs in France and Germany means new dilemma for ECB

Santander Corporate & Investment’s flash services PMIs released this morning will once again be a headache for the ECB, as they show an unexpectedly strong rebound in France at a delicate time of rallies (56.3, 53.5e, 53.9p). But also in Germany (55.7, 53.4e, 53.7p). And at a time when services inflation remains one of the real workhorses as our economists recalled after the release of the final March figure a…

indice ZEW

ZEW index of economic expectations falls to 4.1 from 13 previously and 15.6 expected

Banca March : Investor and analyst confidence in Germany is deteriorating. The ZEW index fell more than expected in April with the reading of economic expectations at 4.1 from 13 and below the 15.6 expected. This suggests that the outlook for economic developments in the coming quarters is dimming after the deterioration in financial conditions in March. For its part, the current situation component of the ZEW index rebounded more…


German business confidence rises in March to 93.3 from February’s 91.1

Bankinter | IFO Business Climate Survey (March) 93.3 vs 91.0 expected and 91.1 previous. Expectations 91.1 vs 88.3 expected and 88.5 previous. Current Situation 95.4 vs 94.1 expected and 93.9 previous. Analysis: The data bring a positive surprise. However, in the current context, the IFO is less influential. This week the focus is on the financial sector and inflation data in Europe. The downside is that solid economic data give…

Alemania PIB

Bundesbank: technical recession unavoidable for Germany in 1Q23 but decline could be less than 4Q22’s 0.4%

Link Securities | Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, as reflected in its Monthly Bulletin, expects Germany’s Gross Domestic Product to contract in 1Q2023 relative to the previous quarter. The Bundesbank believes that the productivity of the German economy could fall again in 1Q2023, albeit less sharply than in the previous quarter. According to the bulletin, the German economy recovered at the beginning of 2023 only with difficulty from the sharp…

Alemania IPC

German inflation exceeds expectations in February at 8.7%

BancaMarch : German inflation beat expectations in February. The preliminary index showed that consumer price growth came in at +8.7% year-on-year, two tenths above expectations and confirmed that the moderation of inflation has slowed in February. A figure that continues to put pressure on the ECB to continue raising official interest rates.


Bundesbank predicts German economy to enter mild recession in 1Q2023

Link Securities | According to the German central bank, the Bundesbank, in its monthly bulletin, and reported yesterday by Europa Press, the German economy will probably enter recession in 1Q2023 as the evolution of GDP will be weaker than in 4Q2022, when activity contracted by 0.2%. The Bundesbank also says it is confident that this contraction in economic activity will be milder than it expected in its December projections. According…

Hydrogen Spain

France clashes with Germany and Spain over “pink” hydrogen

Banca March | The lack of support from Germany and Spain for labelling nuclear-derived hydrogen – pink hydrogen – as “green” within the European taxonomy has infuriated the French government, which claimed to have the commitment of both countries. The dispute could call into question the construction of a gas pipeline linking Germany and Spain, as well as delaying European green legislation.

germany factory workers

German industrial production falls by -3.9% year-on-year in December vs. -1.6% estimate and -0.5% previously

Banca March : There was a mixed bias in the German activity data released yesterday. On the one hand, factory orders grew by 3.2% month-on-month in December, accelerating the growth trend -the highest recorded by the indicator in thirteen months- and beating forecasts. The series is down, however, on a year-on-year basis (-10.1%), reflecting lower activity after the start of the war. In contrast, this morning we have learned about…

germany growth

German factory orders rise more than expected in December, easing recession fears

CoM | German factory orders last December registered a 3.2% increase over the previous month, when they fell by 4.4%, thus surpassing market consensus expectations and removing fears that the “European locomotive” will enter recession this winter. According to data released by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), German factory orders experienced a 10.1% decline compared with December 2021, although they were 1.2% above the level recorded in December 2019, before…


Mild Winter Recession in Germany

ifo | “High inflation rates have driven the German economy into a winter recession.” This is how Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo, responded when Germany’s Federal Statistical Office reported that economic output in the fourth quarter of 2022 had fallen by 0.2 percent. The Federal Statistical Office had originally expected growth to be flat, based on provisional figures. “The usual definition of a recession is when gross domestic…