Germany

In Europe 3rd February 2025

German election: a CDU-SPD coalition still baseline with ‘fatter’ tail risks at the margin

Annalisa Piazza (MFS Investment Management) | Following the eventful discussions and a non-binding motion on immigration approved by the Bundestag last week, the focus ahead of the February 23rd election is now shifting more towards immigration rather than the economy (and its structural problems). Given that Friedrich Merz made it clear that the CDU would not form a coalition government with AfD, a CDU-SPD coalition remains the most likely outcome…

European economy 15th November 2024

Germany’s October ZEW index surprises on downside with 7.4 points vs. 13.1 previously, while EU index declines to 12.5 from 20.1 previously

Link Securities | The ZEW institute published yesterday that its index measuring sentiment about Germany’s economy among major investors and analysts declined in November to 7.4 points from 13.1 points in October, also below the 13.3 points expected by FactSet’s consensus of analysts. This was negatively influenced by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and the collapse of the German coalition government. The index measuring their perception of…

In Europe 18th October 2024

German industrial production falls by 2.7% in August compared with 3.8% drop estimated

Banca March: In Germany, industrial production surprised on the upside in August. Specifically, the indicator climbed 2.9% in the monthly comparison, the biggest advance since October 2021. On a year-on-year basis, German industrial production fell by 2.7% compared with an estimated 3.8% decline. Still in Germany, analysts’ confidence, measured by the ZEW index, gave mixed signals. On the one hand, the expectations component surprised positively at 13.1 versus the 10…

In Europe 9th October 2024

Germany stagnating: industrial production data year-on-year to contract by 4%

Intermoney | A rise in Germany’s industrial production in August is likely to do little to counter growing evidence that Europe’s largest economy is stagnating. Industrial production has yet to show a sustained recovery, hit by weak global demand, high energy prices and financing conditions still in tight territory. This will be seen in the year-on-year reading where, despite the slight monthly rebound, we will still see a contraction of…

European economy 7th September 2024

Germany’s industrial production plunges in July to -5.3% year-on-year vs. -3.7% previously, and -2.4% month-on-month vs. +1.7% previously

Bankinter: German industrial production data was released this morning: -5.3% year-on-year vs. -3.5% estimated and -3.7% previous (revised from -4.1%). Month-on-month -2.4% in July vs. -0.5% estimated and +1.7% previously (revised from +1.4%). On the other hand, the Trade Balance came in at €16.8 bn in July vs. €20.9 bn estimated and €20.4 bn previous. Exports +1.7% vs +1.1% estimated and -3.4% previous. Imports +5.4% vs. +0.7% estimated and +0.2%…

Companies, In Europe, Markets 19th August 2024

Rheinmetall continues to offer an attractive entry point: Overweight, P. O. €666/share

Morgan Stanley | The company has announced the acquisition of Loc Performance (US vehicle supplier) for an EV of $950m. With less than 5% of sales coming from the US, Marie-Ange Riggio (analyst) sees the move as a strategic expansion to add exposure to a larger and more stable market, thus reinforcing the company’s long-term investment thesis, as it would increase production capacity in the US, opening the door to…

European economy, In Europe 6th August 2024

German economy weak, but households optimistic: better income prospects and greater purchasing power

Norbolsa | Germany’s economy may be weak, but households are optimistic. Sentiment is close to the level of February 2022 before the collapse brought about by the war in Ukraine. That mismatch was in evidence on Tuesday when it was revealed that the country was the only major currency area member to suffer a fall in output in Q2. July survey data showed another improvement in German consumer confidence ,…

European economy 29th July 2024

German business climate IFO disappoints in July, weighed down by both expectations and current situation

Bankinter | The German Business Climate IFO disappointed in July, weighed down by both Expectations and the Current Situation. The IFO Business Climate index fell in July to 87.0 points from 88.6 previously and 89.0 expected. By components, both the Current Situation and Expectations showed a non-negligible deterioration. The Current Situation stood at 87.1 vs. 88.5 esp. vs. 88.3 previously and Expectations 86.9 vs. 89.3 vs. 88.8. The indicator remains…

European economy 18th July 2024

Investors’ and analysts’ expectations for future of German economy worsen in July

Link Securities | Expectations (economic sentiment) among major investors and analysts for the future of the German economy worsened in July, with the index measuring them falling from 47.5 points in June to 41.8 points, according to the German ZEW institute yesterday. FactSet consensus analysts had expected a slightly higher reading of 42.0 points. July’s decline was the first drop in a year for this indicator. The decline was mainly…

European economy 18th July 2024

Germany expects €50.3 billion in new debt with 2024 supplementary budget

Alphavalue / Divacons | Germany’s 2024 supplementary budget foresees an increase in previously planned new debt by €11.3 billion to a total of €50.3 billion, according to finance ministry sources. The German cabinet will approve on 17 July the draft supplementary budget for 2024, the draft budget for 2025, the financial plan until 2028 and the economic package. The German government foresees record investments of €78 billion in 2025, including…

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