Intermoney | HBX Group (Buy, Target Price €14) will announce its H1 2026 results on Wednesday 13 May before the market opens, holding a conference call on the same day at 10:30 am CET. The key figures from our forecasts are shown in the attached table. Overall, we expect revenue and EBITDA to have grown by 3% compared to 1H25, which would represent a slowdown of more than 700 basis points in both metrics compared to what was reported a year ago. The current situation in the Middle East is compounded by problems in the hospitality sector in North America, a market that accounts for around 20% of the Group’s TTV, which explains the weak growth figures; indeed, we may even have been overly optimistic. Excluding costs related to the IPO, we expect HBX to have returned to positive net earnings (€58 million). For the time being, and pending comments from the company on the market situation, we continue to expect an EBITDA increase of 5% in 2026e, in line with the guidance for 2026 confirmed last February, which could be revised given the circumstances.
We confirm our Buy recommendation, as well as the target price of €14.
We confirm our Buy recommendation on HBX, as well as the target price of €14, with a target date of September 2026. The stock therefore offers potential of over 100%. The Group maintains a leading position in B2B intermediation within the hotel sector, which accounts for 90% of its revenue and is expected to grow by more than 6% annually worldwide. The share price has been particularly hard hit since the IPO, not only due to lower-than-expected growth but also due to geopolitical issues, particularly at present. The current implied multiples are around 4-5x this year’s EBITDA, which is by no means demanding. Furthermore, HBX is active in other sectors related to the hotel industry, such as car hire (Mobility) and IT services for hotels (HotelTech), which should make an increasingly significant contribution to the Group’s results.
