France

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Change of pace in Europe: Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Belgium will lead growth between 2015 and 2016

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | ECB’s Mario Draghi brought put the bleak panorama that the Eurozone’s economy is facing on the table, and we saw it again reflected in the not-so-promising September manufacturing PMI. The index came in at 50.5 compared to 50.7 in the prior month, whereas EZ Services PMI accelerated at 52.8 for September versus 53.1 in August. Even the composite index plummeted to its lowest fee in the last nine months and reached 52.3. In Germany, both manufacturing and services indexes have also decreased; while in France only manufacturing improved, although it is still contracting.


French government next corporate taxes rise

France: two more years to get to the 3% deficit objective

LONDON | By JP Morgan analysts | The French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, announced this week that the deficit objective of 3.8% of GDP for 2014 would not be reached. This news was not surprising as the Ministry of Finance hinted this summer that the general government deficit would likely to be above 4% this year. But in his last speech, Sapin suggested that the magnitude of the revision would be large, as the government now expects a deficit of 4.4% for 2014. This represents a 0.1% worsening of the deficit with respect to 2013.


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Hollande’s new government ready for reforms

MADRID | The Corner | The economy is stagnant, the confidence of businesses and consumers continues to decline and unemployment is touching new highs. France is being forced to carry out reforms from all sides, hence François Hollande and Manuel Valls have chosen the social democrat Emmanuel Macron as Minister of Economy, confirming their willingness to pursue the economic reform agenda.


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A QE would be key for Germany, France and Italy to overcome their current stagnation

MADRID | By Francisco López | Are there reasons for such optimism after Draghi’s words in Jackson Hole? Yes, but only if Draghi dares to execute a program of sovereign debt purchases immediately. It happens that not all experts are clear that it will be the case. Especially, because the package of measures adopted by the ECB in June has still not been implemented: two TLTROs auctions and the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) program. Would it not be better to wait to check the effects of these measures?


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French construction sector reduces by 0.4% the GDP growth in 1H14

MADRID | The Corner |Besides naming the reshuffle of his Government, after a dispute over hauling the economy out of stagnation caused his government’s collapse, François Hollande has also committed to announce this week a package of measures to revive the economy, including specific stimulus for the construction activity, especially affected in terms of employment by a law to regulate the real estate market precisely adopted at the beginning of his term. It is estimated that construction activity in France represents about 8% of GDP and 1.2 million jobs.


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Spain’s growth beats its EZ larger peers in the 2Q

MADRID | The Corner | Spain’s GDP expanded by 0.6% in the 2Q of 2014 over the previous quarter, the fastest pace in the Eurozone after Latvia’s growth (+1%). With Portugal (+0.6%) and Netherlands (+0.5%), Spain becomes one of the best economic performers in the eurozone during this quarter. Moreover, according to the figures published today by Eurostat, the Euro area has stalled in the 2Q, especially as a result of the contraction of Germany, the Italian fall into recession and France’s stagnation. Meanwhile, the Greek economy contracted by 0.2%, the lowest drop since 3Q 2008 and it could show that the country is meeting its full year growth target of 0.6% for 2014.

 


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EZ manufacturing sector expands in July, but France continues deteriorating

BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | Despite of the growing concerns following the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine towards the end of the month, the EZ manufacturing PMI index remains expanding in July (51.8), according to Markit data published today. Netherlands (53.5), Germany (52.4) and Austria (50.9) saw an acceleration of the growth, while Greece (48.7) continues depressed and France (47.8) keeps being the “Europe’s sick man” and the main brake to the European growth. With the worst figure in Europe, the French manufacturing sector even contracted in July at the fastest rate since December. Meanwhile Ireland (55.4), followed by Spain (53.9), registered again the sharpest rate of growth, supporting the eurozone manufacturing recovery.


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Industrial Production: Will there actually be an acceleration in 2S14?

MADRID | The Corner | After France and Italy’s (second and third most important countries in the single currency bloc) poor industrial production data of -1.9% (vs previous -0.51%) and +1.4% (vs previous +0.2) respectively, expert at Barclays Alberto Vigil wonders why analysts are so sure that there will be an acceleration in the 2S14.

*The green line is the Eurozone’s GDP, whereas the other two are Italy’s and France’s industrial production.


General government gross debt by sector of debt holder

No matter what, non-residents bet on French debt

MADRID | The Corner | While  markets are expressing their concerns about the French economy, institutional investors seem quite comfortable about the Hexagone’s situation: the debt share of non-residents is 57.3 %, according to Eurostat. Finland and Latvia are the top choices with 81.6 % and 80.0 % of their debt owned by non-residents. Check the graph above.


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EU’s problem is not in Germany but in France

MADRID | The Corner | The rise of the far-right Front National will harm more the European project than any economic recipe imposed from Berlin. In the end, Germany is indeed setting hard conditions for the EU integration, but at least is favoring it, whereas France’s Marine Le Pen has a clearly anti European speech and intends to bring power back to the countries.