Renta 4: European stock markets point to a bearish opening (Eurostoxx futures -0.50%, after a Thursday session in which a better-than-expected US CPI data rebounded from the previous month (3.2% against 3.3% estimated and 3.0% previously) encouraged the markets in the last part of the session in Europe, only to end up deflating at the close of the American session.
Although the rise from the previous month is minimal, US inflation breaks the downward streak of 12 consecutive months of declines, from a peak of 9.1%. For its part, core inflation registered a minimal drop to 4.7% (4.8% estimated and previous), registering the lowest rate since October 2021. Finally, and for the third consecutive month, wage growth again outpaced the headline CPI rate (+1.1%). Although the release of the US CPI data had some impact on prices and triggered a certain rebound in 10-year IRRs, the market still assigns a probability of over 90% that the Fed will pause rate hikes for good at the next meeting in September (19-20 September), leaving rates at 5.25%-5.50% as a ceiling.
Regarding energy markets, the Dutch TTF gas price corrected yesterday by 7.5%, after a blistering 28% rise (40% in some parts of Wednesday’s session). Despite the decline and high gas inventories in Europe (Germany maintains stocks of more than 90%), uncertainty about winter gas supply remains, especially in a scenario of colder than usual temperatures.
