Renta 4 : Europe opens higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.4%, S&P -0.1%) after last minute gains in the Nasdaq (+1.65%) and after a session yesterday in which the rebound of the first part of the day in the European stock markets was deflated as the session progressed as there were no specific catalysts, beyond accumulating three consecutive weeks of losses in the main world stock markets.The markets are still waiting for macroeconomic news (PMIs on Wednesday), business news (Nvidia’s results also on Wednesday) and, above all, what the central bankers, especially Powell and Lagarde, can tell us on Friday in Jackson Hole.
The Bundesbank confirmed yesterday that the German economy remains weak in Q3 after the stagnation seen in Q2, with the negative impact of external demand and the increase in financing costs, although the situation would be worse were it not for a resilient labour market and the improvement in bottlenecks. And despite a weak economy, inflation remains high (6.9% in Q2 vs. 8.8% in Q1), despite some moderation in energy, while food prices continue to worry (+14% year-on-year). In this sense, we highlight yesterday’s strong rebound in European gas prices (+18% at the open and then moderating to +12%), which are back to August’s highs after news of new strikes in Australia that put 10% of global LNG exports at risk, in a scenario in which Europe might have to compete with Asia for limited gas for the start of the autumn season, and despite high levels of storage. Although the Bundesbank expects inflation to moderate further, it does not expect it to return to its 2% target for a long period.
In a context where inflation still cannot be considered beaten, it is not surprising that IRRs continue to rise. In particular, yesterday the T-bond +8bp to 4.34% and the Bund +8bp to 2.7%, highs of Oct-22 and Mar-23 respectively.
