LONDON | Barclays analysts | We believe this week’s data on inflation and economic activity have provided more arguments to step up ECB’s asset purchase programmes by including EGBs on 22 January, which is our baseline scenario. Inflation entered negative territory in December and is likely to stay negative for a few months before a weaker euro improves the inflation and growth outlook.
ATHENS | By Nick Malkoutzis | Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has a habit of defending his government by saying that his aim is to make Greece “a normal European country.” Whatever he may mean by this and however genuine he may be in wanting Greece to recover from its long crisis, this is an infuriatingly patronising comment. Intentionally or not, it aligns Greece’s prime minister with all the cranks in Europe and Greece’s misinformed critics beyond who view the country as some kind of basket case.
BRUSSELS | By Jacobo de Regoyos | The previous five years of Jean-Claude Juncker’s reign were suddenly thrown into flux following the publication of hundreds of secret documents regarding agreements between the Grand Duchy of Luxemburg-during his premiership- and over 340 multinationals. In essence, this amounted to the facilitation of tailor-made fiscal schemes that allow the payment of a corporate tax close to 1% instead of the stipulated 29%.
MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Central bankers would be ill-advised to cave in to pressure from the markets. Yet, the ECB can hardly resist the urgent need to implement a fully-fledged QE programme involving sovereigns. Anything less could end-up sparking a period of vicious turmoil as Syriza seems poised to win the upcoming elections in Greece and the oil market continues to tumble into utter disarray. Such a grim outlook requires drastic action. Would it solve all the current problems? There are plenty of reasons to doubt it.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Last week´s Der Spiegel article envisioning an “inevitable” Greek withdrawal from the euro in the event of a Syriza win in the upcoming elections has yet to have the desired effect, with Alexis Tsipras´ left-wing party continuing to hold a small but significant lead over the ruling New Democracy party in the polls. The piece, attributed to unnamed government sources in Germany, sparked a flurry of speculation and doomsday analysis across international media.
ATHENS | By Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | The total amount of loans the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund supplied to Greece between May 2010 and the most recent disbursements last summer stand at 226.7 billion euros. This is equivalent to almost 125 percent of Greece’s economic activity in 2014. There seems to be a general misconception that feeds a misleading narrative in which the loans were used to keep the Greek state afloat, maintain its basic operations and pay salaries of doctors, teachers and policemen.
FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | Is Germany living in a crazy world? That’s what many journalists hint at. “The tortoise cycle will continue,” says Johannes Müller, responsible for the management of Deutsche Bank’s large estates. “The interest rates will remain rock-bottom at least until 2016.” This represents an opportunity for the stock exchanges, because the fear of risk is decreasing. “The ECB wants to weaken the Euro with its low interest rates policy, which is also an opportunity to invest in Dollars and real estate.”
FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | The headlines on the German media would suggest that we live in a crazy world or on the edge looking into the abyss. The fear of a potential catastrophe due to the anti-crisis policy by Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen has led to many different theories and proposals.
BRUSSELS | By Jacobo de Regoyos | The previous five years of Jean-Claude Juncker’s reign were suddenly thrown into flux following the publication of hundreds of secret documents regarding agreements between the Grand Duchy of Luxemburg-during his premiership- and over 340 multinationals. In essence, this amounted to the facilitation of tailor-made fiscal schemes that allow the payment of a corporate tax close to 1% instead of the stipulated 29%.
MADRID | The Corner | The ECB’s non-conventional measures, the banking restructuration and the adaptation to the new regulation make 2015 a crucial year. According to experts at Morgan Stanley, the many stories about restructuration, dividends and regulatory changes will allow to differentiate the performance of the different assets.