SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Markit´s PMI survey is a favorite of central banks and financial institutions. The panel below shows both the global (comprised of 32 countries) and the Eurozone and Japan PMI´s. Trichet´s rate increase ‘folly’ of April and June 2011 as well as Draghi´s “ECB will do whatever it takes” of July 2012 are marked. So is the “Abe effect” in Japan.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | That´s because it can´t be simply called “policy”. Over time the Fed´s economic growth projection has been falling, and after it drops a few notches the Fed introduces something “new” (or “surprising”).
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Regarding the economic recovery… from Robert Samuelson (explaining Edward Lambert´s AS/ED, that´s Aggregate Supply/Effective Demand, theory).
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | In a recent post John Taylor leans on Bob Hall to criticize NGDP Targeting. He goes: “In his paper at the recent Jackson Hole conference, Bob Hall criticized nominal GDP targeting, citing his 1994 paper with Greg Mankiw. Bob argues that “A policy of stabilizing nominal GDP growth would require contractionary policies to lower inflation when productivity growth is unusually high. Such a policy might easily trigger a spell at the zero lower bound.”
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Unfortunately, there´s not much to celebrate on this Labor Day. I start by showing what to me is the most telling chart of all concerning the labor market and which I believe contains the “seeds of destruction” in so much as it destroys skills and the likelihood of a return to meaningful employment in the future.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | The author believes that two ‘obsessions’ are at the root of the loss in nominal stability that took place in the Bernanke Fed: the ‘obsession’ with inflation and its counterpart, the ‘obsession’ with interest rates.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | In Brazil, policies that would make even an ‘advocate’ such as Krugman blush were implemented, with shameful results.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | An alternative, which has been proposed by people like Krugman and Blanchard, is for the central bank to increase the inflation target.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Some economists make the now conventional mistake of ascribing the 1937-38 recession to “austerity”. It was a classic monetary tightening (gold sterilization mostly) induced recession.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | The amendments made on the way the US GDP is measured favoured higher positive figures, but the rate of growth has not changed in any significant way.