ATHENS | Via Macropolis | The evolution of turnover indices for the services sector showed 8 out of the 14 services activities posted a contraction in Q1 2014, according to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). The highest drop was recorded in architectural and engineering activities (down 27.2 percent), cleaning activities (down 17.2 percent) and advertising and market research (down 13.3 percent).
MADRID | By The Corner | Barclays analysts highlight the scarce impact of the European Central Bank’s measures on the inflation expectations. This is the chart that Barclays uses to show the inflation expectations one year before and one year after ECB’s decision.
MADRID | By Bankinter analysts | According to Rightmove, housing prices in the UK rose by +0.1% m/m in June versus previous +3.6%. Thus, the year-on-year rate slows down to 7.7% from 8.9%. In such context, Bank of England’s minutes will be particularly relevant this week, especially after Mr Carney said that the rise in interest rates will come sooner than markets expect.
LONDON | By Kieran Davies at Barclays | Australia’s largest mining boom on record is in its final stage, with mining investment starting to fall at a faster rate and mining exports start to lift rapidly as supply comes on stream. These trends have seen the current account deficit narrow to 1.4% of GDP, the smallest shortfall since 1980, although we expect the current account to remain in deficit as a massive increase in the supply of commodities over the next few years pushes export prices lower.
MADRID | By The Corner | Spain’s public debt grew 7.12 percent in 1Q14 to 989.9 billion euros, which is 96.8 percent of its GDP. The government’s debt went up 8.4 percent from the first three months of 2013 to 864 billion euros, accounting for by far the largest share of the total, according to Bank of Spain figures published Friday. Morgan Stanley analysts emphasize the changes of macroeconomic prospects and the increase of forecasts in peripheral countries. From its analytics department, growth levels for Spain, Portugal and Ireland were raised on Monday.
MADRID | The Corner | Spain will complete a first payment of the EU loan for the rescue of its financial system amounting to 1.3 billion euros, even if the first payment of interests was scheduled for 2022. Severely hit by the economic crisis, in 2012 the country took a nearly €42 bn loan of the €100 bn line arranged by the EU to bail its banks.
MADRID | The Corner | It’s not only about China or the US. Housing prices are well above their historical averages in many countries such as Poland, Turkey or Brazil. And that could mean big trouble for those economies, some of which need to assess their lack of capacity, like the UK. This time the EU’s peripherals are following the opposite trend, with home prices falling 7% in Greece, 6.6% in Italy and 5% in Spain in 2013. The graph shows home prices’ y-o-y evolution in 4Q13.
MADRID | The Corner | No matter whether they lend the funds on to the private sector, TLTRO is likely to be an attractively priced source of funding for banks, especially in the eurozone’s periphery. For those lenders “the costs of TLTRO could be as much as 109-114bp below equivalent wholesale funding for four years, or 68-73bp for two years if they do not increase net lending to the private sector,” an UBS report says. That being said, analysts aren’t sure this is particularly going to boost credit lending. In the graph you can see the dismal evolution of M3 in the 18 single currency area “Shame on the ECB, which has acted behind the curve as always,” The Corner senior economist Miguel Navascués states.
LONDON | By Kyohei Morita and Yuichiro Nagai at Barclays | The Abe administration is currently aiming to reach a Cabinet decision on its new growth strategy and “big bone” economic and fiscal reform plans around end-June. The discussions are far-reaching, but from the perspective of market participants, we believe there are four near-term focal points: 1) corporate taxes; 2) labor market reforms; 3) reforms to the pension system, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF); and 4) special national strategy zones. Here we focus on corporate taxes, likely the only subject of concrete discussion for the markets in June.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The Spanish economy is finally growing and creating more jobs than expected, according to leading analysts. Savings Bank Foundation Funcas upgraded its GDP forecast for 2014, from 1.2% to 1.4%. Afi and Asempleo released the report “Labor market advance” with encouraging insights: employment is likely to rise at 1.3% y-o-y pace in August. Total active population will be 17.46 million by then, 220.000 more than the prior year.