Articles by The Corner

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The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.
Italia IndustriaTC

Italian economy: hope behind the drama

MADRID | The Corner | A few weeks ago, Italy’s PM aide said the country had an “atomic bomb” to revive the economy, meaning a massive tax cut primarily on low to middle range wages that would help to boost domestic demand. Indeed, Rome has seen better days: GDP is expected to shrink 0.4% this year, according to the latest European Commission forecasts, far from the 0.8% growth predicted by Rome just after Mr Renzi took office in February. Its industrial sector, a traditional backbone of the Italian economy, registered a 25pp output gap to the eurozone industry since 1999. Yet the current combination of loose monetary policy, lesser fiscal drag or even outright fiscal stimulus, improving credit conditions and a weaker exchange rate leave the country far from being the sick man of Europe, as some have said.

 


OPEC

All eyes on OPEC

MADRID | The Corner | Oil prices continue to fall ahead of the much-awaited OPEC meeting today, which will start at 9:00GMT –a press conference will be held at 15:00GMT. Brent crude and WTI both fell to four-year lows on concerns that oil producers will not make the large supply cuts needed to contain the slide. Analysts at Barclays believe that with an absence of basing signals for WTI crude, the risk remains lower towards 70.76. Will the oil cartel react?


No Picture

A hundred-year stagnation? For who?

By Alberto Forchielli via Caixin | The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a necessary objective. Anyone who travels in the Far East finds confirmation of the desperate lack of efficient networks. With the exception of Japan and other developed economies, countries see their ambitions reduced by chronic underdevelopment. How can we forcefully industrialize agrarian countries if the goods produced are not transported on paved roads, via trucks, for eventual export?

OCDE recurso TC

“European leaders need to act”, says OECD’s Head of EU and Eurozone

MADRID | By Sean Duffy | The latest economic outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a bleak outlook for Europe unless action is taken. The Corner asked Piritta Sorsa, Head of EU and Eurozone surveillance at the OECD about the increased sense of urgency, sovereign bond proposals and the necessity for consensus among Eurozone members.



No Picture

Juncker Plan still raising some doubts

BRUSSELS | By Alexandre Mato | The European Commission has finally launched its promised €315bn plan to revive the continents stagnating economy. With concerns abounding about creating more debt within Members States, Brussels has turned to financial engineering to fill the investment gap with a very modest €21bn. The aim of the Juncker plan is to ultimately produce 1.3 million new jobs over the next three years.


HE Dr Wolfgang Schäuble 6257468800

Is growing by 0.1% normal, Mr Schäuble?

MADRID | The Corner | Berlin is sticking to a rigid budgetary policy, prioritizing a 2015 balanced budget instead of growth. And hard liners aren’t just willing to make any move. As German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble defended on Tuesday during a budget debate in Parliament:  “We are not in a recession. We are not in an economic crisis,” Schäuble said, “Our economy is almost working at normal capacity.” Germany narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter, growing by 0.1 percent, thanks to a sharp rise in private consumption (0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter, the biggest rise in three years) that compensated the lack of investment.

 


No Picture

Weidmann freezes the markets

MADRID | The Corner | Chairman at Bundesbank and member of the ECB’s Government Council Jens Weidmann warned -again- that more ECB measures to solve low inflation are difficult and could face legal limits. As markets await for Mr Draghi’s appearance on Thursday, ECB’s Benoit Coeure insisted in a Bloomberg TV interview they won’t “rush to a new decision without knowing.” 


No Picture

The euro area’s deflation inflexion point

LONDON | By Jim McCormick and Keith Parker (Barclays) | At the start of the year, we analyzed the risks of a prolonged bout of deflation in the euro area (Japan-style deflation in Europe getting harder to dismiss). Our broad conclusion was that the risks of deflation in the euro area were probably not materially different from the risks Japan faced in the mid 1990s. Perhaps more important, we felt investors should picture 1996-97 Japan when assessing the risks of euro area deflation today.


No Picture

US economic perspectives: Buying time

Maury N. Harris, Drew T. Matus, et al. (UBS) | The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its estimates for a 4.1% y/y rise in holiday sales—among the stronger growth forecasts in recent years. Although sales have fallen short of NRF expectations in each of the last two years, trends in income and confidence suggest better for this year. Falling energy prices also help.