LONDON | By The Corner | Cross-economy inflation readings have surprised to the top side, according to Barclays experts. This has occurred despite analyst forecasts for a pick-up in the pace of price increases. These surprises have been – like the downside surprises of the past couple years – remarkably broad based. They also began before the start of the recent rise in oil prices.
MADRID | The Corner | European and US markets fell on Monday while waiting for the Wall Street’s quarterly results season to begin. The session began without a clear trend, but the European markets went downwards when Germany published disappointing industrial production data in May. This monthly decline is the biggest in two years and might be the result of the 1st May long weekend and the geopolitical tensions deriving from the crisis in Ukraine.
MADRID | The Corner | While the US Federal Reserve may wind back its asset purchases by a further $US10 billion at the end of July, the ECB is ready to launch the first two TLTROs on 18 September and 11 December 2014, with settlement six days later.
MADRID | By The Corner | Corporate earnings season (2Q14) is about to start in Wall Street, with Alcoa opening the way and with the major American market indexes –Dow Jones and S&P 500- at maximum levels. The macroeconomic perspectives of the country will also help, especially after having overcome the impact of the weather on the GDP, as well as the certainty that the Western central banks are committed to support the economic recovery. Thus, investors expect that the official interest rates will keep at very low levels in relative historical terms for a long period of time.
ATHENS | By MacroPolis | After tapping markets in April for the first time in four years, Greece is considering another bond transaction, which could take place as early as next week, according to reports. The troika delegation is scheduled to return to Athens on July 9 and the country’s goal is for the operation to take place as early as possible to avoid any negative repercussions during the inspection by Greece’s lenders affecting investor interest or the yield.
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Mario Draghi unveiled the requirements to be met for drawing cheap money from the targeted long-term facility on Thursday. Those look extremely loose and scarcely demanding. Banks may cash up to 7% of their net lending to businesses and households in the auctions scheduled later on this year. A move that could lead to a massive €400 billion funding injection, should bidders make full use of their potential rights. Borrowing four-year tranches at interest rates so low as 0.25%, seems indeed an unbeatable incentive.
MADRID | The Corner |“Yabadabadu!,” US economist Justin Wolfers exclaimed on his Twitter account. The strong jobs report (unemployment rate declined to near a six-year low of 6.1% and non-farm payrolls rose by 288,000 last month)was released on Thursday gave a shot of optimism over the strength of the job market’s recovery. The Dow broke 17,000 for the first time. Will all this have any influence on the Fed’s tapering plans?
MADRID | The Corner | Markets are wondering where will expansion of multiples will get given this low macro volatility environment and expansionary monetary policies at the global level.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The ECB President announced with fanfare last month a battery of measures to revive the credit in the EZ. The problem is that the open bar announced by Draghi won’t have an impact on loans until 2015 and, meanwhile, credit fall continues to accelerate in some peripheral countries, especially in Spain and Italy. There are those who believe that the latest data could force Mr Draghi to approve a direct debt purchase program before year’s end.
MADRID | The Corner | BNP Paribas shares rose more than 4% on Tuesday after the French lender said it could pay the landmark $8.9bn settlement with US authorities for transferring billions of dollars on behalf of Sudan and other Washington-blacklisted countries. More actors in the EU banking sector might need to pay billionaire fines.