Monex Europe | With the entire Governing Council agreeing to increase the PEPP purchase pace, yesterday’s message may be more dovish than what markets initially expected, but the ECB continues to leave markets in the dark with regards to their exact reaction function and tolerance towards higher yields. Regarding last week’s data, President Lagarde stresses the impact the large number of redemptions had on putting a cap on net purchases.
Azad Zangana (Schroders) | As promised at the previous Governing Council meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) has today announced additional stimulus to aid the economic recovery. This follows the new restrictions introduced last month to stop the spread of the coronavirus. The pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) will be expanded by €500 billion to a total of €1.85 trillion. Purchases will be extended to at least the end of March 2022.
Banca March | The European Central Bank expects an economic contraction of 5.5% in 2020 and a recovery in 2021 to growth of 4.3%. In this context of deteriorating growth forecasts, the ECB continues to increase its asset purchases to support the region’s economy. Even though, it does not reveal the composition of the purchases within this specific programme of support for European economies hit by COVID-19, we can take a look at its usual programme of sovereign debt purchases (known as the PSPP).
The ECB could first check how the market reacts to the actual halving of its purchases in January, and how the run-up to the Italian elections shape up, before changing its message.