SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Why? According to the “accountants”: “It’s no secret that spending cuts (and tax hikes) have retarded America’s growth for the past four years. But data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis suggests that the era of austerity may finally have ended.” See the “flagship chart” above.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | There´s absolutely nothing new on the economic front! So why there´s so much talk about “policy normalization” (i.e. increase in rates)?
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Having €2.83 trillion in the bank and not knowing what to do with it is a problem that everybody would love to have. But it is actually a really serious problem for 316.1 million Americans, especially for those whose income increased by 0.43% in 2013. And, by extension, for the other 6.8 bn of human beings in the planet. Behind this problem there is a lack of investment opportunities, without which investment in the US will remain in a state of weakness and heavily dependent on an inability to increase consumption.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | In the 1Q14, companies at Standard and Poor’s 500 spent more money to repurchase shares in comparison to the profits they had made during that period. And third quarter data point in the same direction. Large American firms do this for several reasons, such as inflating their share price –because, the fewer number of shares, the more profits per share they’ll have, which in turn benefits managers, who receive financial compensation in the form of company shares.
BEIJING | By Sean Miner via Caixin | The United States and China disagree on many issues but especially in the foreign policy sphere, and there are few reasons the two economic heavyweights will become closer in the next few years. Among the few areas that could bring them closer could be increased bilateral investment. With the recent “breakthrough” between China and the United States in the negotiations on the Information Technology Agreement, the prospects for a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between them have been improved.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | In The Risks to the Inflation Outlook SF Fed researcher Vasco Cúrdia writes: the median inflation forecast is not expected to return to the FOMC target of 2% until after the end of 2016. The uptick in inflation in the first half of 2014 could lead one to believe inflation is finally on the path back toward its target. However, inflation has shown similar patterns several times before and each time the uptick has never lasted very long. According to this model, we should not see inflation begin to recover more firmly until around the end of 2015.
By UBS analysts | As the US economic recovery completes its fifth year, direct policy stimulus is no longer being applied, but the economy is poised to move ahead on its own self-generating momentum. Real GDP growth is expected at 2.9% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Less slack in the labor market along with accelerating labor demand should soon be accompanied by somewhat faster wage gains to boost household incomes, confidence and spending. A rising industrial capacity utilization rate should help trigger more sustained gains in capex. And a falling residential rental vacancy rate should further stimulate rents and residential construction.
By UBS Global Macro Team | Our proprietary surprise indices for growth and inflation are still enjoying very tight correlations with the prices of a wide range of global financial assets. The gyrations of our global and regional growth indices for instance closely track equity markets, both developed and emerging. Global growth surprises (excluding the US) closely track – and often lead – the US dollar and oil prices. Eurozone growth surprises closely track – and often lead – the euro. And global inflation surprises closely track the price of gold.
WASHINGTON | BNP Paribas analysts | Republicans won control of US Congress this week. Latest projections suggest the GOP has taken over the Senate. Given that the Republicans are very likely to retain a working majority in the House, we can expect the party to control both houses of Congress at least until the end of 2016. A severe budget showdown is unlikely.
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Before it was Peter Coy with John Maynard Keynes Is the Economist the World Needs Now. Now it´s Anatole Kaletsky with The takeaway from six years of economic troubles? Keynes was right: The main lesson is that government decisions on taxes and public spending have turned out to be more important as drivers of economic activity than the monetary experiments with zero interest rates and quantitative easing that have dominated media and market attention.