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Markets 2nd December 2014

German macroeconomics will determine ECB bond purchases

MADRID | The Corner | Markets are already discounting the ECB’s QE of sovereign debt. That is why the risk premiums of the European periphery are now at historical low levels –take the Spanish one, for instance, which has dropped to 108 points. The yield of the 10-year bond has fallen to 1.85%. In this context, a sovereign bond purchase program still makes sense. “The latest inflation data of the Eurozone, which are at 0.3%, are a clear indicator of that,” Felipe López-Gálvez, expert at Self Bank, explains. However, the program would not acquire a full meaning until the German economy showed signs of weakness. “If Germany holds on,” then the ECB will not come to that extreme.

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Markets 1st December 2014

Markets take ECB’s QE for granted

MADRID | The Corner | Inflation in the eurozone is not picking up. Expectations aren’t either. And the ECB’s balance sheet expansion is almost inexistent. PMI indicators (which the central bank is closely watching) are trending downwards. In this context, Barclays analysts comment, it is not strange that markets are expecting more QE from the Frankfurt. But when? Probably not this week.

 

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Markets 1st December 2014

US grows while the shadow of stagnation threats the EZ

MADRID | The Corner | The leading indicators of the manufacturing sector both in Europe and the US will be announced on Monday. China’s indicators showed an economic slowdown of the sector, which could force the government to implement new stimuli measures. Together with the service sector index, which has a bigger impact on the developed economies, these indicators will show -again, two divergent scenarios: 1) the American economy keeps on growing at a good pace after two quarters in which the GDP increased more than 4% on average, 2) the economy of the Eurozone continues its slow expansion, but there is a threat of stagnation, according to experts at Link Securities.

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Markets 28th November 2014

Markets may thrive in bad EZ inflation data

MADRID | The Corner | Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s crucial CPI data. As happened yesterday with Spanish and German data, consumer prices are expected to do down in November, due to an energy prices drop. Will the European Central Bank feel any pressure to act? Then bad news could turn a blessing for financial markets.

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Markets 26th November 2014

ECB’s bond buying unlikely to bring growth

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Up to now, all devices planned by the ECB to reverse the dismal situation have utterly failed. The medium-term financing facility has gathered little enthusiasm from the banking community. Covered bonds and ABS have proved to be blunders, their turnover limited to a meagre €20 billion per month. This heralded bazooka has petered out well short of its target. Banks are pressing for a widening of eligibility, hoping to transfer bad assets to the central bank. Others suggest a sweeping corporate bond buying thrust that would only benefit big enterprises, thereby introducing further distortions. Short of ammunition, the ECB has just one final weapon to curb the dwindling performance of the economy: sovereign bond acquisitions. 

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Markets 25th November 2014

Weidmann freezes the markets

MADRID | The Corner | Chairman at Bundesbank and member of the ECB’s Government Council Jens Weidmann warned -again- that more ECB measures to solve low inflation are difficult and could face legal limits. As markets await for Mr Draghi’s appearance on Thursday, ECB’s Benoit Coeure insisted in a Bloomberg TV interview they won’t “rush to a new decision without knowing.” 

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Markets 24th November 2014

Investors find it hard to trust the ECB…

MADRID | The Corner | It seems Mario Draghi is preparing the markets and the ECB’s Government Council for further action as soon as next December. Investors are reluctant to trust Mr Draghi’s words, but they seem to be more confident lately. However, this “affair” will come to an end if the ECB does not take effective measures. According to market watchers at Link Securities, markets will closely monitor the ECB’s Government Council meeting, which will be crucial for investors to maintain their trust in the European institution.

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Markets 21st November 2014

ECB to start ABS purchases

MADRID | The Corner | The European Central Bank published the legal act for purchases of asset-backed securities, setting it up to start buying the debt as soon as this Friday. Proponents say the measure “could boost the shaky eurozone recovery by reducing borrowing costs for businesses, households and governments.” According to market watchers at Link Securities, Mario Draghi will reiterate the intention of adopting new measures to boost the economic growth in the Eurozone.