World economy
Economic surprises explain (nearly) everything
By UBS Global Macro Team | Our proprietary surprise indices for growth and inflation are still enjoying very tight correlations with the prices of a wide range of global financial assets. The gyrations of our global and regional growth indices for instance closely track equity markets, both developed and emerging. Global growth surprises (excluding the US) closely track – and often lead – the US dollar and oil prices. Eurozone growth surprises closely track – and often lead – the euro. And global inflation surprises closely track the price of gold.
China fighting the elements
The Communist Party slows down Beijing to ensure a pollution-free capital during the APEC Summit (Nov 9-11). Information about the world’s second economy is often distorted due to a lack of understanding of China and the nuances within. With the attention of the international community and foreign media on the country, the APEC Summit constitutes a golden opportunity for the country.
In-depth: Republican US Congress? Big budget showdown unlikely
WASHINGTON | BNP Paribas analysts | Republicans won control of US Congress this week. Latest projections suggest the GOP has taken over the Senate. Given that the Republicans are very likely to retain a working majority in the House, we can expect the party to control both houses of Congress at least until the end of 2016. A severe budget showdown is unlikely.
Progress in fiscal reform is key to transforming China
BEIJING | Via Caixin | Changes to China’s tax and fiscal framework have become the vanguard for the “deep and comprehensive” reforms the country has pledged in an effort to overhaul its economy and society. On June 30, the Communist Party’s top leaders endorsed a slate of tax and fiscal reform measures to be put in place by 2016, so a modern tax system could be up and running by 2020. In August, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee adopted the revised Budget Law.
Will bad US monetary policy get worse?
By Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | In one of the more inexplicable political dementias of our time, the modern-day Republican Party has become fixated on inflation, and peevishly infatuated with tight-money policies—when not blubbering about gold.
What’s life like for those fleeing the IS?
An inside look at the lives of refugees and internally displaced persons in Iraqi Kurdistan. The region is thought to be hosting approximately 1.4 million internally displaced persons (IDP) and refugees. This number is expected to rise due to ongoing instability in Syrian Kurdistan and Iraq’s Nineveh province, especially with escalating violence in areas surrounding Mosul, Iraq‘s second largest city. The sudden occupation of Mosul by Islamic State (IS) militants in early June forced tens of thousands of ethnic and religious minorities to seek refuge in Iraq’s Kurdish region, as they fled execution, sexual enslavement and cultural elimination.
BoJ shocks markets; how about the economy?
By Kyohei Morita, Yuichiro Nagai, James Barber, and the CFA at Barclays | The BoJ shocked the markets with further easing on Halloween. The actual effect on the economy will likely be less direct. The weaker JPY and lower real interest rates have not boosted export volumes and private capex since the start of QQE, and this may not change in the near future. However, consumer spending could draw support from wealth effects and higher wages linked to stronger exporter profits under JPY depreciation
Russian market: Winter is coming
MADRID | By Sean Duffy and Ana Fuentes | Growth is stagnant, sanctions are biting, and Russian investors are getting the cold-shoulder on international markets. So where does the country go from here? The Corner wanted to get a glimpse at market conditions on the ground and the overall sentiment within the country.
We spoke to Alexander Pechersky, a managing partner from ALT R&C, a firm specialising in advice to investors in the Russian market. In a frank interview, he cautions against placing too much stock in the effects on sanctions, noting that the economy was a mess to begin with.
ECB monetary policy places the EZ in an “increasing depression”
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Before it was Peter Coy with John Maynard Keynes Is the Economist the World Needs Now. Now it´s Anatole Kaletsky with The takeaway from six years of economic troubles? Keynes was right: The main lesson is that government decisions on taxes and public spending have turned out to be more important as drivers of economic activity than the monetary experiments with zero interest rates and quantitative easing that have dominated media and market attention.