Jeroen Blokland (Robeco) | The yield curve for US 10 year/ 3 month Trasury bonds inverted in March. This phenomenon has accurately predicted the last seven recessions. However, analysis shows that is does not cause extreme variations in returns on assets.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The collapse in the price of raw materials in the last number of weeks is good news for consumers, but very bad news in macroeconomic terms because of the heightened risk of deflation in the eurozone. Oil continues to plummet and a barrel of Brent is now priced at $82, 30%, lower than its June level and is currently trading at a four year low.
LONDON | By Kevin Norrish at Barclays | What’s all the fuss about? On many occasions over the past few years, oil prices have spiked higher only to fall back rapidly into the prevailing trend of narrow range trading and steadily falling volatility. So is the recent pickup in oil prices anything more than just another blip?
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | It could be a big deal. The Spanish government has to evaluate a comprehensive report on the tax system reforms handed by an experts’ comittee “We have spared no one,” they’ve said. Will this really boost simplicity and efficiency? Market makers await further details about where the government stands on each proposal. Besides, focus remains in Ukraine ans the polemic referendum in Crimea, and in China, whose PM announced that more defaults are coming.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Although there is a train of thought that the sharp acceleration in US crude oil supply growth will sooner or later result in a turning point for oil prices and a possible price collapse, our analysis suggests 2014 is too early for that.