Ana Fuentes | Spain and the US are the only developed countries which are going to grow more than 2% in 2019 according to the IMF. On the case of Spain, exports, which were driving the country’s growth, have weakened, but domestic demand has grown. The risk premium is just below 100 basis points, compared to Italy’s 250 b.p. But beyond the data, the analysis is currently conditioned by the effect of the electoral campaign.
S&P has reduced its estimate of GDP for the euro area by 5 tenths in 2019 from +1.6% in November to +1.1%. In 2020 it forecasts a growth of +1.4% (vs. +1.6% previous), +1.4% also in 2021 (vs +1.5% previous) and +1.3% in 2022.
BancaMarch | The Spanish Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) maintains buoyant expectations for the growth of the country’s economy.
Households have improved their debt levels, but the state has compensated for this. So Spain remains the most indebted country in the world, with public and private debt representing 300% of GDP. Another reason which helps explain the fact that investment is still not taking off. But what are very popular are “stock market games”.
The trend in the variables observed indicates that the recovery of the Spanish economy continued during the first half of 2016. With nearly 80% of the information available for 2Q16, the MICABBVA model estimates that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) will have completed one year at around 0.8%. If confirmed, this stabilisation in the pace of expansion would give an upward bias to the growth envisaged in BBVA-Research’s baseline scenario for 2016 (2.7%).
IMF praises Spanish strong recovery but recommends additional reforms to strengthen growth and accelerate the fiscal consolidation.
The Corner | July 23, 2015 | The Spanish economy grew by 0.9% q/q in Q1 15. Q2 data suggest that activity accelerated to 1.1% q/q, taking full-year 2015 growth to 3.3%, on Barclays estimates. “We think that the risks to the Spanish growth outlook are balanced, especially as the likelihood of Grexit has dropped,” the bank analysts commented on their July economic bulletin.
The Corner | July 9, 2015 | Updating its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund cut its world growth forecast (3.3 %from 3.5%) in 2015, downplayed the Greek drama and said it expects Spain to grow more than the US.
MADRID | May 22, 2015 | By Francisco López | The Spanish economy is beating new records mainly thanks to external factors. According to the latest data, exports of goods totalled €23.2 billion in March, the best monthly figure since 1971. The euro price fall has been crucial.