Philippe Waetcher (Ostrum AM – Natixis) | Spain has recovered strongly since 2013. Probably as a reaction to the deep fall of the Spanish economy in 2008 and after the 211-2012 period. This reaction explains the strong performance of the Spanish economy observed in recent years.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The possibility of new elections in November is beginning to sound the alarm about the ability of Spanish political parties to form coalitions. The Spanish economy is an animal of great strength which, once set going, is resistant and difficult to stop. So said to me a few months ago a distinguished Spanish economist who presides over one of the most respected think tanks.
Banc Sabadell | The Spanish economy faces the second half of 2019 growing at relatively high rates (we expect 2.3% yoy in 2019 vs 1.0% for the Eurozone) but with a less favourable composition of growth.
Ana Fuentes | Spain and the US are the only developed countries which are going to grow more than 2% in 2019 according to the IMF. On the case of Spain, exports, which were driving the country’s growth, have weakened, but domestic demand has grown. The risk premium is just below 100 basis points, compared to Italy’s 250 b.p. But beyond the data, the analysis is currently conditioned by the effect of the electoral campaign.
S&P has reduced its estimate of GDP for the euro area by 5 tenths in 2019 from +1.6% in November to +1.1%. In 2020 it forecasts a growth of +1.4% (vs. +1.6% previous), +1.4% also in 2021 (vs +1.5% previous) and +1.3% in 2022.
BancaMarch | The Spanish Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) maintains buoyant expectations for the growth of the country’s economy.
Households have improved their debt levels, but the state has compensated for this. So Spain remains the most indebted country in the world, with public and private debt representing 300% of GDP. Another reason which helps explain the fact that investment is still not taking off. But what are very popular are “stock market games”.
The trend in the variables observed indicates that the recovery of the Spanish economy continued during the first half of 2016. With nearly 80% of the information available for 2Q16, the MICABBVA model estimates that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) will have completed one year at around 0.8%. If confirmed, this stabilisation in the pace of expansion would give an upward bias to the growth envisaged in BBVA-Research’s baseline scenario for 2016 (2.7%).
IMF praises Spanish strong recovery but recommends additional reforms to strengthen growth and accelerate the fiscal consolidation.