Renta 4 | According to the forecasts included in the 22nd edition of the Real Estate Barometer, prepared by the Union of Real Estate Credits (UCI) and the Spanish International Realty Alliance (SIRA), the price of housing will rise by 10% for sales and 8.6% for rentals in 2025. Transactions, meanwhile, are expected to grow by 4.6%,to 750,000 units.
The context of supply-demand imbalance, the fall in interest rates and the boom in foreign demand are among the main factors driving prices.
On the other hand, according to Tinsa’s estimates, the theoretical effort to buy a new-build home (the disposable income needed by a household to afford a mortgage) stands at 49%, a percentage considered critical (and 13 p.p. more than the average of 36%).
Assessment: News that we expect to have a neutral impact on the share price of property developers. Despite the increase in the effort rates for the purchase of housing in Spain, we consider that the context of imbalance between the supply and demand of housing, fundamentally derived from the demographic growth compared to the limited supply of new housing, ensures the absorption of product put on the market by the main real estate developers.
We reiterate our recommendation to OVERWEIGHT with a P.O. of €12.75/share in Inmobiliaria del Sur, OVERWEIGHT with a P.O. of €9.90/share in Metrovacesa, HOLD with a P.O. of €24.50/share in AEDAS Homes and HOLD with a P.O. of €15.00/share in Neinor Homes.
