Bankinter | S&P unexpectedly downgraded France’s credit rating to A+ with a stable outlook (from AA- with a negative outlook, since February 2025). S&P noted that ‘uncertainty over public finances remains high’ and that in the ‘absence of significant additional measures to reduce the deficit’, consolidation will be ‘slower than previously anticipated’. Furthermore, ‘the lack of visibility on the fiscal consolidation plan is weighing on France’s economic growth’.
Bankinter analysis team’s view: This is the second downgrade from AA, following Fitch’s downgrade on 12 September (to A+ with a stable outlook, from AA- with a negative outlook). Fitch noted that growing public debt was limiting the country’s ability to respond to new crises and the increasing fragmentation and polarisation of domestic politics. Moody’s is the only one of the three agencies to be rated Aa3 with a stable outlook and has a review scheduled for this Friday (24 October).
