MADRID | By Francisco López | The first world power is doing worse than expected. USA’s GDP decreased in 1Q by 2.9% year on year, nearly three times the 1% foreseen just a month ago and far from 1.8% that Wall Street expected. European stock markets, unlike the American, reacted immediately with heavy losses. Spanish Ibex 35 leaded the way losing 1.25 and finished below 11,000 points.
ATHENS | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | “Samaras rescues Greece” – it’s the headline the prime minister and many in his office would have cherished. But Giorgos Samaras, the striker without a club, has beaten premier Antonis to the title of saviour thanks to his injury time penalty on Wednesday, which ushered Greece into the second round of the World Cup for the first time in its history.
MADRID | The Corner | We live in a virtuous circle of low growth rates leading to expansive economic policies and low volatilities that make investors increase risk in the pursuit of profitability -which causes inflation in the financial markets (and cash becomes here the “cursed asset”), sources at JP Morgan say.
MADRID | The Corner | The production of vehicles in Spain exceeded one million units in 2014, after the 7% growth recorded in May, according to the Spanish Association of Car and Lorry Manufacturers (ANFAC). Thus, during that month, the level of manufacturing reached 232,762 units and the total annualized was 1,065,879 vehicles. During the first five months of the year, the production of vehicles in Spain grew by 11%. ANFAC estimates that the recording of production will reach 2.4 million by the end of 2014.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Ben Bernanke’s warning about a posible withdrawal of Fed monetary stimulus a year ago prompted a notable rise of premium risks and general drops in global stock markets, but deeper in emerging economies. And it indeed hit the so-called BIITS (Brazil, Indonesia, India, Turkey and South Africa). Today, stocks have recovered and stand at levels prior to the taper shock, although some collateral damages are there.
ZURICH | By UBS analysts | The economic recovery in the Eurozone remains on track, but Q1 GDP data have once again shown the slow pace of growth and wide discrepancies that exist between individual economies. We cut our 2014 Eurozone growth forecast to 1.0% (from 1.1%) and continue to project 1.5% growth for 2015. Nominal GDP growth is expected to pick up to 1.7% this year and 2.7% in 2015, but nonetheless, it remains much slower than would be desirable to accelerate debt deleveraging
MADRID | The Corner | The liquidity net increase of the new measures by the ECB may be substantially less than expected, because of two main reasons: as a consequence of the 3-year LTRO maturity next December and February, and due to the improvement in the workings of the money markets.
NEW YORK | By Benjamin Cole at Historinhas | The recent historical and empirical record strongly suggests central bank quantitative easing (QE) works. The riddle is whether both the Japan and U.S. economies will slip into stagnation again without QE, as long as there is a global glut of capital holding down interest rates, and inflation is dead—or even if inflation is near 2 percent on the PCE deflator, the putative Fed target. The riddle might even be reframed: When central banks do not conduct QE, are they actively engaged in monetary asphyxiation?
MADRID | The Corner | Spanish national tourism starts to reactivate: the number of travellers residing in Spain grew at the same rate than the number of residents abroad. The recovery in tourist expenditure of the Spanish households suggests that the private consumption may grow in the 2Q14 –although probably at a slower pace than in the previous quarters (+0.4%). The evolution of the heavy traffic in Spain’s toll motorways also points at a recovery in the domestic demand, which is a necessary component to compensate for the loss of pulse of the external sector and allow a new quarterly advance in the 2Q14 activity (+0.4%).
MADRID | The Corner | The much-awaited German Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade fell to a seasonally adjusted 109.7 points this month, below forecasts for 110.2 and down from 110.4 in May. Although the country’s firms still make positive assessments of the current business situation, the Munich-based institution explained in a press release on Tuesday, they feel less optimistic about the future. And fear the potential impact of the crises in the Ukraine and Iraq.