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The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.
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In Europe 27th June 2014

Italy is on sale… for a while

MADRID | The Corner | On July 1 the new Italian fiscal reform will begin and the tax rate on capital gains will go up from 20% to 26%. Both private and institutional investors are selling before that date so as to rebuy again after and get a +2% after tax return. The FTSEMIB stands below the levels recorded after Mr Renzi’s victory and at the same levels registered before Mr Draghi’s last intervention. The index is behaving worse than the Spanish Ibex 35, and –if this trend continues, next week will be the moment to resume positions.

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Spanish economy 27th June 2014

Home mortgages average in Spain rises by 6.2% to €100,394

MADRID | The Corner | Spanish mortgage business continued down the road and registered 13.4% less than last year in April’s property records. According to the National Statistical Institute (INE), the loaned capital for housing reached €1.5 billion, which is 8% less than the 2013 figure. Thus, the average amount of mortgages on dwellings in Spain is €100,394, i.e. +6.2% more than the previous year.  The boards of technical architects awarded 11,680 building licences for new houses in the first four months of the year (4M2014), 9% less year-over-year. This construction visa remain far away from September 2006 maximum where they were beyond 255,000 in four months.

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Markets 27th June 2014

Most EU banks expect medium-to-large consolidations within three years

MADRID | The Corner | Banks feel nervous about the upcoming ECB’s AQR and stress tests. Despite the recent waves of capital raises, lenders still don’t know about the amount of expected recapitalization needs, nor how their provisions against loan losses will do. According to a interesting piece by Bruegel (check their graphs), which comments on the recent E&Y European Banking Barometer, almost one in three of the 294 respondents still expecting to raise Loan Loss Provisions. And, as we wrote not long ago, only 8% of respondents anticipate raising additional capital following the exercise, there is an additional 19% of respondents who a capital raise “might” be necessary.

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In Europe 27th June 2014

ECB – Most likely done now

ZURICH | By UBS analysts | On 5 June, the ECB delivered a comprehensive monetary policy package, comprising cuts in the refi rate (from 0.25% to 0.15%), the deposit rate (from zero to -0.1%) and the marginal lending facility (from 0.75% to 0.4%). The ECB also rolled out the ‘full allotment mode’ – the commitment to supply unlimited liquidity (against adequate collateral) at the refi rate – from July 2015 to December 2016, and it will inject liquidity by ending the sterilisation of the Securities Markets Programme (SMP) portfolio. 

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Markets 26th June 2014

Why All Currencies Are National

By Jean Pisani-Ferry via Caixin | Actions by America’s Justice Department launching a probe against BNP Paribas are a reminder that the major international currency – the U.S. dollar – brings with it legal, judicial and political dimensions. 

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World economy 26th June 2014

The world’s disappointing recovery

SINGAPORE/LONDON | By UBS analysts | Global growth has disappointed in the first half of this year. As a result, we have steadily marked down our forecasts for 2014. We now forecast global growth of 3.0% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015 after 2.5% in 2013. At the turn of the year we forecasted 3.4% global growth for 2014 and 2015.

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World economy 26th June 2014

Curbing corruption requires more than just politics

SHANGHAI | Via Caixin | To root out the graft that has seeped into every aspect of the society and economy, China must build institutions that put power under scrutiny. No one is off-limits in the government’s campaign against corruption. CCTV financial news channel director Guo Zhenxi was put under investigation late last month, three months after the sacking of security vice-minister Li Dongsheng, who also worked for the state broadcaster.

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Markets 26th June 2014

Biggest EU banks show poorest Q1 results in 5 years

MADRID | The Corner | The first quarter of the year is usually the best for lenders, and yet major European entities are showing the weakest results since Q1 2009:  net profit fell once more (-9% yoy) to a pale EUR 12, according to a report by Deutsche Bank Research. Potentially high litigation costs and the upcoming ARQ and ECB’s stress tests make them eager to strengthen their capital buffers.

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World economy 26th June 2014

Crude oil: It’s a turning point

LONDON | By Kevin Norrish at Barclays | What’s all the fuss about? On many occasions over the past few years, oil prices have spiked higher only to fall back rapidly into the prevailing trend of narrow range trading and steadily falling volatility. So is the recent pickup in oil prices anything more than just another blip?