LONDON | June 10, 2015 | By Antonio Garcia Pascual and Nikolaos Sgouropoulos (Barclays) | We think there are at least two critical issues outstanding: 1) agreeing on credible fiscal measures to achieve a primary surplus of c. 1% of GDP; and 2) fast-track pension reforms to reduce costs and increase the effective retirement age (currently 59).
MADRID | June 9, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | From the very moment Ms Merkel vowed to put an end to the Greek crisis, she filled the Hellenic sails with hopes of snatching extra concessions. Athens seems well aware that the German Chancellor is under heavy pressure to secure a deal before the G-7 meeting, and that it will profit from this unexpected manna. It will play these winning cards until they become obsolete.
June 8, 2015 | Barclays | After the Greek government failed to reach an agreement with the institutions last week, positions are still far apart and it is very unclear what PM Tsipras wants to achieve, while he is confronted with disagreements within his party. Failure to agree this week would likely make it difficult to have a smooth resolution before the end of June when the programme expires.
The Corner | June 5, 2015 | The eurozone needs its own treasury over and above national budgets, one that would not come at the expense of fiscal discipline at the national level. That is the radical shift advocated by Sigmar Gabriel and Emmanuel Macron, move that has been strongly resisted by Merkel throughout the crisis.
ATHENS | June 4, 2015 | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | As Greece’s lenders prepare to present Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras with their final proposal, there is one question that everyone wants the answer to: Will Syriza MPs support the deal?
MADRID | June 3, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | Fearing the next G7 meeting held in Germany might become the platform for an acrimonious exchange over Europe’s inability to sort out the Greek imbroglio, Merkel summoned the key creditors on Monday in a desperate effort to reach a consensus offer for Athens.
MADRID | June 1, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | When Tsipras took over matters from Varoufakis a couple of weeks ago, observers were mildly optimistic about the prospect of Greece reaching a fair deal with its creditors. But yesterday’s remarks by the Hellenic PM on the ‘absurd’ demands filed by his counterparts has dealt a heavy blow to such hopes. The chances of broking an agreement are far away and there are increasing doubts over the ability to reach an understanding before it is too late.
LONDON | May 29, 2015 | By Fabio Fois (Barclays) | Given the large number of voters involved (slightly less than half those involved in last year’s European elections) and local governments contested, we believe the Italian elections represent an important test for the government and the structural reform agenda implemented so far.
The Corner | May 28, 2014 | The energy poverty index tripled in Spain from 2007 to 2013. Despite the country’s better macro outlook, one in ten households are currently struggling to heat themselves in the winter, do not own a TV set or simply cannot pay their bills, according to a report. Spain is the 4th EU country with higher electricity prices, says Eurostat.
LONDON | May 28, 2015 | By Fabrice Montagne (Barclays) | The measures announced on Wednesday are not new but were already extensively discussed in the press or during the campaign and were mostly included in the Conservative manifesto. By making a selection and a ranking of all the possible bills, the Queen’s Speech nonetheless provides necessary clarification on the government’s priorities over the next 12 months.