BRUSSELS | By Alexandre Mato | The financial sector has been expecting a boost to support capital markets from the incoming EC President Jean-Claude Juncker. There has been widespread speculation as to what shape such a boost might take within the monetary union. However Britain´s opposition to Juncker´s appointment means expectations have been somewhat tempered.
ATHENS | Via Macropolis | In a much-anticipated speech, SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras unveiled the main pillars of his party’s economic policy platform on Saturday, focusing on debt relief from the eurozone, the use of European Union funds to boost employment, a reduction in taxes and an increase of wages and pensions.
LONDON | By UBS Global Research | While there has been considerable attention paid to the impact of an independent Scotland on British government debt ratios, the debate about independence has paid very little attention to Scotland’s starting debt. If an independent Scotland were to take a per capita share of gross debt, it would have a debt burden of around 88% of GDP (after the migration of part of Scotland’s financial sector). Scotland’s initial deficit and the set-up costs for the new state would need to be added to this number.
LONDON | By JP Morgan analysts | The French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, announced this week that the deficit objective of 3.8% of GDP for 2014 would not be reached. This news was not surprising as the Ministry of Finance hinted this summer that the general government deficit would likely to be above 4% this year. But in his last speech, Sapin suggested that the magnitude of the revision would be large, as the government now expects a deficit of 4.4% for 2014. This represents a 0.1% worsening of the deficit with respect to 2013.
MADRID | By Luis Alcaide | In an op-ed at Wall Street Journal on Thursday, New EU Vice Commissioner Jyrki Katainen pledged for stimulating growth in the eurozone by keeping the proper fiscal consolidation. But his comment could be put in a different way: stimulating growth by all means as the only way of achieving fiscal consolidation. Stimulating growth means that deflation, a price level increase inferior to 2% (the Stability Pact target) is a more pressing requirement than meeting the 3% public deficit in the short term.
MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | Hundreds of thousands of Catalonians marched for the third year in a row to claim their national sovereignty. The pro-independence way in Catalonia -which comes from a feeling more than a century old and from time to time strongly emerges to fight for its goal- is behind these demonstrations and tries to capitalize them.
FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | Martin Gornig is deputy head of department of Firms and Markets at the prestigious German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin. The Institute conducts a working group that advises the Minister of Economy Sigmar Gabriel with the idea of increasing investments in Germany. Gornig and his team released a report last summer on the possibility of stimulating growth in Europe without changing the Stability Pact. The proposal of DIW is to immediately mobilize the necessary investments “to boost growth in countries in crisis and avoid a new recession in the eurozone.” As France and Italy are demanding, the Institute bets on growth but warns that it should not be at the expense of a debt increase
MADRID | By Álex García.
BRUSSELS | By Alexandre Mato | EU finance ministers are meeting in Milan on Friday to focus on Ireland, Greece and Cyprus exit plan to leave their IMF-EU financial assistance programs. The much-needed debate about economic stimulus and growth is not on the agenda, nor will be Scotland, despite the thorny economic implications of an eventual yes vote in the upcoming referendum.
MADRID | The Corner | Historically, German housing prices have remained flat, but since 2011 they have increased by 30% (a low figure when compared with +150% growth of the last 15 years in UK, France and Spain). Morgan Stanley analysts already see signs of recovery in the German residential sector, so the stocks exposed to it may be attractive. Moreover, housing prices in the UK have fallen significantly more than expected: 40% in August from 48% in July, instead of the 47% expected fall. It’s the lowest level of the past 12 months. According to Bankinter, this is a good sign “because it dissipates the fear of a possible housing bubble and reduces the BoE arguments to raise its main interest rate in advance.”