Price of TTF natural gas contracts reaches 40% increase, exceeding €40/MWh

UE gas

Renta 4 : Stock markets point to a positive opening (Eurostoxx futures +0.67%), after a positive Wednesday session in Europe in which the markets welcomed the Italian government’s decision to limit the tax on banks announced last Monday. In this sense, the government has clarified that the tax cannot exceed 0.1% of the assets of the institutions and “will not have a significant impact” on those that are remunerating the deposits of savers.

Undoubtedly, the news of the day was in the energy markets, with the price of natural gas TTF contracts (the benchmark in Europe) reaching a 40% increase and surpassing €40/MWh for the first time since June. Among the reasons for this rise were fears of lower supply in the second half of the year, mainly due to lower production in Norway because of maintenance work, less LNG available in the United States, and strikes at Chevron and Woodside facilities. Although less explosively, the price of Brent crude oil also continued to post gains (+1.4%), reaching April 2023 highs after a cumulative rise of more than 20% from June’s lows.

This volatility in the energy markets could put a brake on the moderation of inflation in the coming months, especially as the strong base effect of energy prices with respect to 2022 disappears. In this sense, today’s US CPI data for July will be published, where a slight rebound in the headline rate is expected (+3.3%e vs +3.0% previously) and stagnation in the core rate (+4.8%e and previously).

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