Renta 4 | The main US indices are starting the week in a very similar vein to the last three months, mired, especially the S&P 500, in a tedious sideways range, with support at 6,780 points and resistance at 7,000 points. The two major support levels for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 this year can be clearly seen in the chart below, with November’s lows of 6,520 points as the key short-term level for the S&P 500 and the 6,100-6,150 point range as its key point for the medium term. Equivalent levels in the technology index would be 23,900 points and the 22,100-22,200 point range.
Since 1991, the three US conflicts with Middle Eastern countries have been bullish for the S&P 500 over three months (and beyond). Breaking with the logic of these unfortunate events, as we can see in the chart below, historically, the performance of the main US index has been positive three months after the start of the three main conflicts that have taken place against Middle Eastern countries.
With historically positive implications for the indices, we highlight the high volume experienced last week in the index that encompasses the 100 main leveraged loans in the US (granted to companies with credit ratings below investment grade). This index, as a measure of investor risk appetite, correlates with the performance of the S&P 500. Last week, influenced by risk aversion in the software sector, the index experienced historically high volume, always associated with a climax and selling pressure. These events have historically been correlated with rises in the S&P 500 weeks later.
