Meliá forecasts closing 2022 with Ebitda of over €400 M; expects to recover pre-Covid revenues in 2023

MeliáHotel sector figures improve, but debt still large

Bankinter | Meliá has offered some guidelines for the next few years, for the first time since the pandemic. It will recover pre-Covid revenue levels in 2023, with an improvement in margins of 300 bp from 2024. This clearly beats our estimates.

The CEO of Meliá forecasts closing 2022 with EBITDA of over 400 million euros, excluding capital gains. In 2023, the group will recover pre-Covid revenues (1.8 billion euros in 2019). The improvement of 300 bp in EBITDA margin in 2024 vs 2019 (pre-Covid) will be achieved despite inflationary pressures.

Bankinter analyst team’s view:

Good news for Meliá. The company’s estimates clearly beat our own and consensus: (i) We forecast EBITDA of 350 million euros 2022e, which compares with the 340 million estimated by consenso and the 400 million by the company itself; (ii) we foresee an EBITDA margin of 26.1% for 2024, which compares with 26.8% for consenus and ~29.5% forecast by the company; (iii) we coincide over the group surpassing pre-Covid revenue levels in 2023, although the consensus was 5% lower. We see the news having a positive impact on the share price, of over 5%. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.

MELIÁ (Buy; Target Price: 7,76 euros/share)

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The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.