Caixabank Research| The tourism sector has had a strong start to 2024. International arrivals in February were 15.9% above the same month of 2019, while international tourist expenditure attained a level 26.7% above that of February 2019. Demand for tourism services is holding up despite the strong increase in tourism related prices: CPI hotel prices in February increased by 9.0% year-on-year, attaining a level 32.2% above the same month of 2019. Tourist arrival figures in February were boosted by stronger tourist flows from the Americas (up 26.9% with respect to February 2019) and by tourism from the EU (up 17.7% with respect February 2019).
On the domestic side, following resilient figures last summer, overnight stays by residents in tourist accommodations rose by a solid 4.4% year-on-year in February, landing at a level 0.02% above February 2019. Looking ahead, we expect robust rates of growth in low season and more modest growth in high season, both from high levels.
The current account surplus keeps improving. The current account registered a 2.8% of GDP surplus in the twelve months to January 2024, 0.2pp above the 2023 figure and the largest surplus since December 2017. Compared to the 2023 figure, the 0.2pp improvement can be attributed to a 0.05pp improvement in the balance of non-energy goods and a 0.1pp improvement of the income balance, the latter possibly driven by the slight decline in market interest rates since October 2023. Following twelve years in a row of current account surpluses, the deficit in the net international investment position, a traditional weakness of the Spanish economy, has almost halved, from c.100% of GDP in 2012, to c.53% in 2023.
