Bankinter: Preliminary CPI for October repeats at +3.5% year-on-year (vs. +3.8% expected and from +3.5% previously). The Underlying figure slackens to +5.2% year-on-year (compared to +5.6% expected and from +5.8% previously). On a month-on-month basis, the headline rate rebounds +0.3% and the core +0.4%. More details are available in the press release from the National Statistics Institute linked here.
According to Bankinter experts, “the figure is better than expected. Headline inflation stabilises, compared to the new estimated rebound. However, we maintain our forecast of a rebound towards the end of the year and the beginning of 2024, after the end of last year’s positive base effect, the recent rebound in oil prices and the end of the government’s inflation control measures. We cannot forget that the underlying rate is still at 5.2% (+1.7% above headline).”
Their projections point to an average CPI of +3.8% in 2023 and +3.6% in 2024 (around +4.4% Dec-2023 and +3.0% Dec-2024).
With the stagnation of its year-on-year rate in October, inflation ends three consecutive months of increases after rising four, three and nine tenths in July, August and September, respectively.
