According to the newspaper “El Español”, the Spanish real estate market could close 2021 with 640,000 home sales, of which 75,000 units would come from the new construction market, and 565,000 units from the second-hand market, according to Colliers. Over 30% more than in 2020 and 9% more than in 2019. “2021 will be the year with the most sales in the last decade,” says Ferran Font, director of research at pisos.com.
Sales left negative territory in March, according to the INE. From then on, there have been very strong year-on-year rises every month. So much so that in May they reached three digits (107.6%). In September it was 37.6% (53,410 transactions). In October, 22.2% (46,242 transactions).
Colliers also points out that the first half of 2021 was the best of the entire historical series since 2008. The number of housing transactions was 63.7% higher than in 2020, and 10.67% over the first half of 2019. A good performance in both new housing (with increases of 44.9% and 23.9% over 2020 and 2019, respectively) and used housing (up 66.2% and 9.3%, respectively).
“For the second half of the year, the current levels of demand are expected to continue. Thus, “Housing sales have increased notably thanks to household savings, the decision to change home after confinement and improved financing conditions,” summarises Rosa Gallego, Director of Operations at Q Living.
400,000 mortgages and 100,000 permits
Mortgages have also followed the upward trend in sales and purchases. This started in March and has continued since then. “The mortgage figures for last October continue to confirm that the impact caused by covid is increasingly distant,” says Ferran Font.
It is true that the figure of 40,000 mortgages harvested since September has been lost. But the more than 36,000 loans represent the highest October figure since 2010. “Year-on-year growth continues to moderate as the year progresses and the 28% recorded, although notable, is the smallest increase over 2020 since it spiked in March,” he adds. Compared to 2019, the increase is 22%.
A sweet moment, according to hipotecas.com, UCI’s online channel, which will lead to a close-of- year surpassing the threshold of 400,000 mortgages. Therefore, 16% more than in 2020, and 10% more than in 2019.
In terms of new residential building permits, with 67,304 permits accumulated between January and August, it is expected to surpass the 100,000 mark by the end of the year, returning to the six figures of 2019 and 2018. The increase would be around 18%. Even so, it is still a long way from the 865,000 homes that were registered in 2006, at the height of the real estate bubble.
The positive evolution of the real estate sector in 2021 makes it an attractive option for investors. “The volume achieved in the first nine months of the year, with an exceptional second quarter with higher levels than before the pandemic, together with our forecasts of a very active fourth quarter, allows us to place real estate investment in 2021 in pre-pandemic volumes”, forecasts Adolfo Ramírez-Escudero, president of CBRE. It would therefore be in the region of 10-12 billion euros.
In fact, and according to the president of CBRE, “Spain is one of the countries that is leading the recovery of the sector in Europe”. At the moment, the levels of investment activity in the real estate sector are close to those of 2019, a period in which the market was perceived to be at its peak.